MDC Covid-19 Projections

This website was created to inform researchers, scientists, policy makers, and the general public regarding the projected impact of Covid-19 on Miami-Dade County. We will be providing daily updates and projections for each model.

Disclaimer on Models

What you need to know about epidemiologic models: Models use mathematics and information we have on COVID-19 to project what might happen in the future. All existing models of COVID-19 infection and outcomes are simplified versions of what happens in actual epidemics. Furthermore, models are dependent on the quality of the data that goes into them (for example, the percentage of people who are infected who will eventually need to be hospitalized and put on a ventilator). Because of these limitations, models can give us ideas about what may happen. They cannot tell us exactly what will happen and when it will happen.

Residents in South Florida are familiar with hurricane forecasts and know that short-term forecasts are much more reliable than long-term forecasts. This is also true with these models; there is more confidence about what will happen this coming week than there is about what will happen several weeks from now.

Because there is still much uncertainty about many aspects of COVID-19 infection including its spread from person to person, its natural history, and how well people are adhering to social distancing, these simplified models of the effects of COVID-19 need to be considered only as possible scenarios. Furthermore, they are much less likely to be accurate in the long-term.

To see today's Model Predctions visit The Model Report

Models

SIRD Model

Compartment Model of Covid-19 for Miami-Dade County using the number Succeptible, Infected, Recovered and Deceased.

For full documentation visit SIRD Model

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Model

Model Developed at the Univeristy of Washington. Forecasts Beds, ICU Beds, Ventilators, Deaths, Excess Demand.

Citation: IHME COVID-19 health service utilization forecasting team, Christopher JL Murray medRxiv 2020.03.27.20043752; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752

The COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model (CHIME)

SIR Model Developed at the University of Pennsylvania to examine hospital impact. Predicts Peak Beds, ICU Beds, Ventilators. Does not predict deaths.

Citation: Weissman GE, Crane-Droesch A, Chivers C, et al. Locally Informed Simulation to Predict Hospital Capacity Needs During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Ann Intern Med. 2020; [Epub ahead of print 7 April 2020]. doi: https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-1260