Florida COVID-19 Trajectory

Introduction

Public understanding of science is critical in times of crisis. The following analysis was conducted to examine the trajectory of COVID-19 in Florida. For phased reopening, the White House has set guidelines for local municipalities in their “Opening Up American Again” report. In the report, it is highly suggested that:

  1. Local areas show a downward trajectory in the number of positive cases as a percent of total tests over a two-week period, and
  2. Local hospitals have capacity to handle all patients without crisis care.

The analysis begins by looking at the number of new positive cases each day and the number of total tests performed each day. The figures are presented together because as there is more testing, there are likely to be more positive test results. Therefore, the proportion of positive cases is also calculated. Given either a flat or increasing number of tests performed, the proportion of positive cases is the key metric to be used when looking at epidemic trajectory. It is recommended that this proportion not exceed 5%.

Note: 5-day moving averages are used to smooth data.

Note: On 8/31 there was a one-time historical data submission of a large number of cases from a large laboratory. The number of cases for 8/31 in the current report excludes this historical data submission.

Note: a data dump of previously reported results prevented the reporting system from normal processing of lab results on October 9th, causing an inaccurate representation of data for October 9th and October 10th.


COVID-19 Test Counts and Proportions

Full Data

This is a table of the most recent data we have available. We include data sources at the end of the document.
Date Positive Negative Percent Total PropPositive
2020-06-07 1516 26419 5.40 27935 5.426884
2020-06-08 1812 30848 5.50 32660 5.548071
2020-06-09 1791 22038 7.50 23829 7.516052
2020-06-10 2298 29117 7.30 31415 7.314977
2020-06-11 2292 32271 6.60 34563 6.631369
2020-06-12 3479 36301 8.70 39780 8.745601
2020-06-13 2700 47699 5.40 50399 5.357249
2020-06-14 1765 31912 5.20 33677 5.240966
2020-06-15 2692 34570 7.20 37262 7.224518
2020-06-16 2410 21546 10.10 23956 10.060110
2020-06-17 2692 28047 8.80 30739 8.757604
2020-06-18 3301 30098 9.90 33399 9.883529
2020-06-19 4007 28701 12.30 32708 12.250825
2020-06-20 4636 34568 11.80 39204 11.825324
2020-06-21 2761 32917 7.70 35678 7.738663
2020-06-22 3829 32471 10.50 36300 10.548209
2020-06-23 5482 29171 15.80 34653 15.819698
2020-06-24 5019 50787 9.00 55806 8.993657
2020-06-25 8871 59318 13.00 68189 13.009430
2020-06-26 9571 65922 12.70 75493 12.677997
2020-06-27 8375 60687 12.10 69062 12.126785
2020-06-28 5380 34372 13.50 39752 13.533910
2020-06-29 6043 35396 14.60 41439 14.582881
2020-06-30 6569 36718 15.20 43287 15.175457
2020-07-01 9477 55469 14.60 64946 14.592123
2020-07-02 9406 53471 15.00 62877 14.959365
2020-07-03 11384 69066 14.20 80450 14.150404
2020-07-04 9920 56060 15.00 65980 15.034859
2020-07-05 6269 35582 15.00 41851 14.979331
2020-07-06 7301 37419 16.30 44720 16.326029
2020-07-07 9988 60054 14.30 70042 14.260015
2020-07-08 8935 39305 18.50 48240 18.521974
2020-07-09 11310 76800 12.80 88110 12.836227
2020-07-10 10333 70706 12.80 81039 12.750651
2020-07-11 15224 119183 11.30 134407 11.326791
2020-07-12 12257 93181 11.60 105438 11.624841
2020-07-13 9244 51854 15.10 61098 15.129791
2020-07-14 10039 63332 13.70 73371 13.682518
2020-07-15 13814 92184 13.00 105998 13.032321
2020-07-16 11245 83398 11.90 94643 11.881491
2020-07-17 10225 73407 12.20 83632 12.226181
2020-07-18 12458 92379 11.90 104837 11.883209
2020-07-19 10464 60065 14.80 70529 14.836450
2020-07-20 9317 58846 13.70 68163 13.668706
2020-07-21 9700 81862 10.60 91562 10.593915
2020-07-22 10165 72212 12.30 82377 12.339609
2020-07-23 12400 80448 13.40 92848 13.355161
2020-07-24 12117 93623 11.50 105740 11.459240
2020-07-25 9297 74551 11.10 83848 11.087921
2020-07-26 8856 68496 11.40 77352 11.448961
2020-07-27 9190 69160 11.70 78350 11.729419
2020-07-28 9392 67031 12.30 76423 12.289494
2020-07-29 9893 72233 12.00 82126 12.046124
2020-07-30 8943 75325 10.60 84268 10.612569
2020-07-31 9577 77005 11.10 86582 11.061191
2020-08-01 7123 69492 9.30 76615 9.297135
2020-08-02 4835 48166 9.10 53001 9.122469
2020-08-03 5413 43954 11.00 49367 10.964815
2020-08-04 5472 44578 10.90 50050 10.933067
2020-08-05 7651 83470 8.40 91121 8.396528
2020-08-06 7627 67924 10.10 75551 10.095168
2020-08-07 8480 76719 10.00 85199 9.953169
2020-08-08 6213 67083 8.50 73296 8.476588
2020-08-09 4198 44671 8.59 48869 8.590313
2020-08-10 5815 50731 10.28 56546 10.283663
2020-08-11 8138 60040 11.94 68178 11.936402
2020-08-12 6269 59575 9.52 65844 9.520989
2020-08-13 6165 70172 8.08 76337 8.076031
2020-08-14 6325 76089 7.67 82414 7.674667
2020-08-15 3848 45789 7.75 49637 7.752282
2020-08-16 2720 30447 8.20 33167 8.200923
2020-08-17 3888 45271 7.91 49159 7.909030
2020-08-18 4155 54753 7.05 58908 7.053371
2020-08-19 4552 62814 6.76 67366 6.757118
2020-08-20 4668 64041 6.79 68709 6.793870
2020-08-21 4332 83330 4.94 87662 4.941708
2020-08-22 3016 50337 5.65 53353 5.652915
2020-08-23 2059 37861 5.16 39920 5.157816
2020-08-24 2751 34022 7.48 36773 7.481032
2020-08-25 3272 54116 5.70 57388 5.701540
2020-08-26 3195 48271 6.21 51466 6.207982
2020-08-27 3687 62970 5.53 66657 5.531302
2020-08-28 3143 60938 4.90 64081 4.904730
2020-08-29 2640 50205 5.00 52845 4.995742
2020-08-30 1735 32543 5.06 34278 5.061555
2020-08-31 3645 59857 5.74 63502 5.739977
2020-09-01 2506 42113 5.62 44619 5.616441
2020-09-02 3602 54576 6.19 58178 6.191344
2020-09-03 3222 60299 5.07 63521 5.072338
2020-09-04 3705 58827 5.92 62532 5.924966
2020-09-05 2512 49091 4.87 51603 4.867934
2020-09-06 1880 39430 4.55 41310 4.550956
2020-09-07 1804 34850 4.92 36654 4.921700
2020-09-08 2325 36986 5.91 39311 5.914375
2020-09-09 2538 43819 5.47 46357 5.474901
2020-09-10 3661 63401 5.46 67062 5.459127
2020-09-11 3171 69079 4.39 72250 4.388927
2020-09-12 2385 54381 4.20 56766 4.201459
2020-09-13 1792 44789 3.85 46581 3.847062
2020-09-14 2663 60948 4.19 63611 4.186383
2020-09-15 2311 49762 4.44 52073 4.438001
2020-09-16 3278 70645 4.43 73923 4.434344
2020-09-17 3200 73811 4.16 77011 4.155251
2020-09-18 3563 75544 4.50 79107 4.504026
2020-09-19 2523 52404 4.59 54927 4.593369
2020-09-20 1667 37176 4.29 38843 4.291636
2020-09-21 2396 38600 5.84 40996 5.844473
2020-09-22 2593 46650 5.27 49243 5.265723
2020-09-23 2594 55987 4.43 58581 4.428057
2020-09-24 2812 63355 4.25 66167 4.249853
2020-09-25 2770 64173 4.14 66943 4.137849
2020-09-26 1842 43791 4.04 45633 4.036552
2020-09-27 809 18311 4.23 19120 4.231172
2020-09-28 3192 61589 4.93 64781 4.927371
2020-09-29 2050 39010 4.99 41060 4.992694
2020-09-30 2799 57579 4.64 60378 4.635795
2020-10-01 2669 68322 3.76 70991 3.759631
2020-10-02 2775 55796 4.74 58571 4.737839
2020-10-03 1859 47799 3.74 49658 3.743606
2020-10-04 1381 34135 3.89 35516 3.888388
2020-10-05 2271 40923 5.26 43194 5.257675
2020-10-06 2500 58447 4.10 60947 4.101925
2020-10-07 3262 68365 4.55 71627 4.554149
2020-10-08 2871 66971 4.11 69842 4.110707
2020-10-09 1778 20803 7.87 22581 7.873876
2020-10-10 3641 102470 3.43 106111 3.431313
2020-10-11 1564 35258 4.25 36822 4.247461
2020-10-12 2679 51126 4.98 53805 4.979091
2020-10-13 2836 49800 5.39 52636 5.387947
2020-10-14 3288 60335 5.17 63623 5.167942
2020-10-15 3381 74312 4.35 77693 4.351743
2020-10-16 3983 72872 5.18 76855 5.182487
2020-10-17 2464 50689 4.64 53153 4.635674
2020-10-18 1743 34199 4.85 35942 4.849480
2020-10-19 3580 54510 6.16 58090 6.162851
2020-10-20 2138 29640 6.73 31778 6.727925
2020-10-21 5430 91496 5.60 96926 5.602212
2020-10-22 3695 88633 4.00 92328 4.002036
2020-10-23 4390 115639 3.66 120029 3.657449
2020-10-24 2341 47667 4.68 50008 4.681251
2020-10-25 3323 52561 5.95 55884 5.946246
2020-10-26 4253 62975 6.33 67228 6.326233
2020-10-27 4036 70143 5.44 74179 5.440893
2020-10-28 4154 80527 4.91 84681 4.905469
2020-10-29 5408 86307 5.90 91715 5.896527
2020-10-30 2501 34410 6.78 36911 6.775758
2020-10-31 6494 105889 5.78 112383 5.778454
2020-11-01 2670 38665 6.46 41335 6.459417
2020-11-02 4563 55288 7.62 59851 7.623933
2020-11-03 4353 51677 7.77 56030 7.769052
2020-11-04 6135 91903 6.26 98038 6.257778
2020-11-05 5164 75595 6.39 80759 6.394334
2020-11-06 4365 48155 8.31 52520 8.311120
2020-11-07 6621 98193 6.32 104814 6.316904
2020-11-08 3834 43474 8.10 47308 8.104337
2020-11-09 4284 46907 8.37 51191 8.368659
2020-11-10 5686 66580 7.87 72266 7.868154
2020-11-11 5492 68988 7.37 74480 7.373792
2020-11-12 6752 77531 8.01 84283 8.011105
2020-11-13 4434 39824 10.02 44258 10.018528
2020-11-14 9890 119752 7.63 129642 7.628701
2020-11-15 4516 51544 8.06 56060 8.055655
2020-11-16 7312 76303 8.74 83615 8.744842
2020-11-17 7736 86223 8.23 93959 8.233378
2020-11-18 8953 108143 7.65 117096 7.645863
2020-11-19 8836 106146 7.68 114982 7.684681
2020-11-20 8178 111710 6.82 119888 6.821367
2020-11-21 6476 90231 6.70 96707 6.696516
2020-11-22 6080 79060 7.14 85140 7.141179
2020-11-23 8072 98522 7.57 106594 7.572659
2020-11-24 8093 104835 7.17 112928 7.166513
2020-11-25 10114 140287 6.72 150401 6.724689
2020-11-26 6619 99875 6.22 106494 6.215374
2020-11-27 6132 79069 7.20 85201 7.197099
2020-11-28 7157 83097 7.93 90254 7.929842
2020-11-29 6465 69144 8.55 75609 8.550569
2020-11-30 8608 88679 8.85 97287 8.848047
2020-12-01 9882 96909 9.25 106791 9.253589
2020-12-02 10630 117758 8.28 128388 8.279590
2020-12-03 9949 121395 7.57 131344 7.574765
2020-12-04 10202 128241 7.37 138443 7.369098
2020-12-05 8204 95145 7.94 103349 7.938151
2020-12-06 7523 89484 7.76 97007 7.755110
2020-12-07 7818 89263 8.05 97081 8.053069
2020-12-08 9377 97877 8.74 107254 8.742797
2020-12-09 11235 125549 8.21 136784 8.213680
2020-12-10 11350 130706 7.99 142056 7.989807
2020-12-11 10402 119879 7.98 130281 7.984280
2020-12-12 8845 102006 7.98 110851 7.979179
2020-12-13 8308 89362 8.51 97670 8.506194
2020-12-14 9420 86445 9.83 95865 9.826318
2020-12-15 11319 108342 9.46 119661 9.459222
2020-12-16 12924 133453 8.83 146377 8.829256
2020-12-17 12960 133601 8.84 146561 8.842734
2020-12-18 11440 123899 8.45 135339 8.452848
2020-12-19 8194 93709 8.04 101903 8.040980
2020-12-20 10727 114260 8.58 124987 8.582493
2020-12-21 10221 104480 8.91 114701 8.910995
2020-12-22 11117 114792 8.83 125909 8.829393
2020-12-23 12868 148319 7.98 161187 7.983274
2020-12-24 10663 122848 7.99 133511 7.986608
2020-12-25 5957 67577 8.10 73534 8.101014
2020-12-26 7064 64784 9.83 71848 9.831867
2020-12-27 8027 62719 11.35 70746 11.346224
2020-12-28 11890 38984 23.37 50874 23.371467
2020-12-29 13448 136883 8.95 150331 8.945593
2020-12-30 16560 123198 11.85 139758 11.849053
2020-12-31 21012 163478 11.39 184490 11.389235
2021-01-01 9702 85035 10.24 94737 10.240983
2021-01-02 10404 71035 12.78 81439 12.775206
2021-01-03 11200 76031 12.84 87231 12.839472
2021-01-04 15126 101097 13.01 116223 13.014636
2021-01-05 17325 117901 12.81 135226 12.811885
2021-01-06 19387 145309 11.77 164696 11.771385
2021-01-07 19085 145845 11.57 164930 11.571576
2021-01-08 15012 122857 10.89 137869 10.888597
2021-01-09 12260 103386 10.60 115646 10.601318
2021-01-10 11585 95715 10.80 107300 10.796831
2021-01-11 14582 120160 10.82 134742 10.822164
2021-01-12 13656 118360 10.34 132016 10.344201
2021-01-13 13415 140110 8.74 153525 8.737991
2021-01-14 16541 143874 10.31 160415 10.311380
2021-01-15 11933 126128 8.64 138061 8.643281
2021-01-16 10801 105680 9.27 116481 9.272757
2021-01-17 7830 76251 9.31 84081 9.312449
2021-01-18 9641 95826 9.14 105467 9.141248
2021-01-19 11549 94900 10.85 106449 10.849327
2021-01-20 12663 133436 8.67 146099 8.667411
2021-01-21 13404 93685 12.52 107089 12.516692
2021-01-22 12099 171338 6.60 183437 6.595725
2021-01-23 9409 102790 8.39 112199 8.385993
2021-01-24 8569 79776 9.70 88345 9.699474
2021-01-25 9422 92013 9.29 101435 9.288707
2021-01-26 8253 71707 10.32 79960 10.321411
2021-01-27 11308 133881 7.79 145189 7.788469
2021-01-28 10877 63561 14.61 74438 14.612160
2021-01-29 14715 205438 6.68 220153 6.683988
2021-01-30 7681 128939 5.62 136620 5.622164
2021-01-31 5609 60143 8.53 65752 8.530539
2021-02-01 10316 112250 8.42 122566 8.416690
2021-02-02 6762 79365 7.85 86127 7.851197
2021-02-03 7516 77973 8.79 85489 8.791774
2021-02-04 10742 175183 5.78 185925 5.777598
2021-02-05 7355 109772 6.28 117127 6.279509
2021-02-06 6644 89965 6.88 96609 6.877206
2021-02-07 5569 69697 7.40 75266 7.399091
2021-02-08 7029 93265 7.01 100294 7.008395
2021-02-09 7426 104232 6.65 111658 6.650665
2021-02-10 8270 124834 6.21 133104 6.213187
2021-02-11 7473 112179 6.25 119652 6.245612
2021-02-12 7067 106731 6.21 113798 6.210127
2021-02-13 5646 76540 6.87 82186 6.869783
2021-02-14 3767 50993 6.88 54760 6.879109
2021-02-15 6668 93417 6.66 100085 6.662337
2021-02-16 7205 104389 6.46 111594 6.456440
2021-02-17 5040 73431 6.42 78471 6.422755
2021-02-18 6611 105923 5.87 112534 5.874669
2021-02-19 7103 116166 5.76 123269 5.762195
2021-02-20 12:00 AM 4922 72701 6.34 77623 6.340904
2021-02-21 12:00 AM 4102 55177 6.92 59279 6.919820
2021-02-22 12:00 AM 5558 79390 6.54 84948 6.542826
2021-02-23 12:00 AM 7043 109916 6.02 116959 6.021768
2021-02-24 12:00 AM 6536 117975 5.25 124511 5.249335
2021-02-25 12:00 AM 5913 107723 5.20 113636 5.203457
2021-02-26 12:00 AM 5439 91046 5.64 96485 5.637146
2021-02-27 12:00 AM 5415 78153 6.48 83568 6.479753
2021-02-28 12:00 AM 1802 26655 6.33 28457 6.332361
2021-03-01 12:00 AM 7018 115711 5.72 122729 5.718290
2021-03-02 12:00 AM 5223 75123 6.50 80346 6.500635
2021-03-03 12:00 AM 6096 107070 5.39 113166 5.386777
2021-03-04 12:00 AM 5932 109042 5.16 114974 5.159427
2021-03-05 12:00 AM 4633 89895 4.90 94528 4.901193
2021-03-06 12:00 AM 4070 65017 5.89 69087 5.891123
2021-03-07 12:00 AM 3366 54362 5.83 57728 5.830793
2021-03-08 12:00 AM 4406 71316 5.82 75722 5.818652
2021-03-09 12:00 AM 4811 88004 5.18 92815 5.183429
2021-03-10 12:00 AM 5015 95242 5.00 100257 5.002144
2021-03-11 12:00 AM 5049 99261 4.84 104310 4.840380
2021-03-12 12:00 AM 5152 94024 5.19 99176 5.194805
2021-03-13 3803 61973 5.78 65776 5.781744
2021-03-14 2873 43357 6.21 46230 6.214579
2021-03-15 4637 75236 5.81 79873 5.805466
2021-03-16 4675 79196 5.57 83871 5.574036
2021-03-17 5997 101572 5.58 107569 5.575026
2021-03-18 5076 95506 5.05 100582 5.046629
2021-03-19 4943 87524 5.35 92467 5.345691
2021-03-20 3962 59067 6.29 63029 6.285995
2021-03-21 2961 40801 6.77 43762 6.766144
2021-03-22 5282 75522 6.54 80804 6.536805
2021-03-23 5150 80118 6.04 85268 6.039780
2021-03-24 5811 96983 5.65 102794 5.653054
2021-03-25 5809 94395 5.80 100204 5.797174
2021-03-26 5667 84126 6.31 89793 6.311182
2021-03-27 12:00 AM 4829 65516 6.86 70345 6.864738
2021-03-28 12:00 AM 3578 43231 7.64 46809 7.643829
2021-03-29 12:00 AM 5106 74526 6.41 79632 6.411995
2021-03-30 12:00 AM 4941 71364 6.48 76305 6.475329
2021-03-31 12:00 AM 6873 99027 6.49 105900 6.490085
2021-04-01 12:00 AM 6314 96735 6.13 103049 6.127182
2021-04-02 12:00 AM 5828 86108 6.34 91936 6.339193
2021-04-03 4786 62723 7.09 67509 7.089425
2021-04-04 3531 44192 7.40 47723 7.398948
2021-04-05 5433 72516 6.97 77949 6.969942
2021-04-06 5771 76352 7.03 82123 7.027264
2021-04-07 7716 102959 6.97 110675 6.971764
2021-04-08 6971 99430 6.55 106401 6.551630
2021-04-09 6748 90337 6.95 97085 6.950610
2021-04-10 5521 65771 7.74 71292 7.744207
2021-04-11 1647 18787 8.06 20434 8.060096
2021-04-12 9059 101001 8.23 110060 8.230965
2021-04-13 6681 82398 7.50 89079 7.500084
2021-04-14 6727 93436 6.72 100163 6.716053
2021-04-15 7250 98033 6.89 105283 6.886202
2021-04-16 6325 84942 6.93 91267 6.930216
2021-04-17 6082 66924 8.33 73006 8.330822
2021-04-18 4285 49199 8.01 53484 8.011742
2021-04-19 5621 75516 6.93 81137 6.927789
2021-04-20 5542 82366 6.30 87908 6.304318
2021-04-21 6610 99271 6.24 105881 6.242858
2021-04-22 4875 77116 5.95 81991 5.945774
2021-04-23 7286 109015 6.26 116301 6.264779
2021-04-24 4686 63266 6.90 67952 6.896044
2021-04-25 3591 45606 7.30 49197 7.299226
2021-04-26 5238 70110 6.95 75348 6.951744
2021-04-27 5107 83403 5.77 88510 5.769970
2021-04-28 5654 92854 5.74 98508 5.739635
2021-04-29 5271 87811 5.66 93082 5.662749
2021-04-30 5372 89182 5.68 94554 5.681410
2021-05-01 3883 62060 5.89 65943 5.888419
2021-05-02 3131 47622 6.17 50753 6.169093
2021-05-03 3665 56050 6.14 59715 6.137486
2021-05-04 4374 80554 5.15 84928 5.150245
2021-05-05 4591 87265 5.00 91856 4.998040
2021-05-06 4276 86566 4.71 90842 4.707074
2021-05-07 3936 80615 4.66 84551 4.655178
2021-05-08 3175 56377 5.33 59552 5.331475
2021-05-09 2270 43326 4.98 45596 4.978507
2021-05-10 3245 61762 4.99 65007 4.991770
2021-05-11 3151 66499 4.52 69650 4.524049
2021-05-12 4011 87305 4.39 91316 4.392439
2021-05-13 3545 81985 4.14 85530 4.144744
2021-05-14 3263 70818 4.40 74081 4.404638
2021-05-15 2420 53415 4.33 55835 4.334199
2021-05-16 1972 42850 4.40 44822 4.399625
2021-05-17 2766 58206 4.54 60972 4.536509
2021-05-18 2850 65577 4.17 68427 4.165023
2021-05-19 2870 70571 3.91 73441 3.907899
2021-05-20 2327 48953 4.54 51280 4.537832
2021-05-21 3344 90921 3.55 94265 3.547446


The data above show for each day since June 8th, 2020: the number of positive COVID-19 tests, the number of negative COVID-19 tests, and the proportion of positive COVID-19 tests to total COVID-19 tests.

Total COVID-19 Tests by Day

We see the following pattern for the count of total tests over the past two months (shown on a log scale):

The average number of COVID-19 tests performed each day increased from under 35,000 in early June, 2020 to over 125,000 during the month of December, 2020. Subsequently, there has been a decrease in testing.

Over the past two weeks there was a decrease of -1128.9 fewer tests performed each day.

Positive COVID-19 Tests by Day

We see the following pattern for the count of positive tests since June 2020: