Miami-Dade County COVID-19 Trajectory

Introduction

Public understanding of science is critical in times of crisis. The following analysis was conducted to examine the trajectory of COVID-19 in Miami-Dade County. For phased reopening, the White House has set guidelines for local municipalities in their “Opening Up American Again” report. In the report, it is highly suggested that:

  1. Local areas show a downward trajectory in the number of positive cases as a percent of total tests over a two-week period, and
  2. Local hospitals have capacity to handle all patients without crisis care.

The analysis begins by looking at the number of new positive cases each day and the number of total tests performed each day. The figures are presented together because as there is more testing, there are likely to be more positive test results. Therefore, the proportion of positive cases is also calculated. Given either a flat or increasing number of tests performed, the proportion of positive cases is the key metric to be used when looking at epidemic trajectory. It is recommended that this proportion not exceed 5%.

Finally, to ensure hospitals can meet demand without crisis care, the COVID-19 positive hospitalization census, COVID-19 positive ICU census, and COVID-19 positive ventilation census is plotted over time. Census refers to the number of COVID-19 positive patients in the hospital, ICU, and on ventilators, respectively, on a given day. Note: 5-day moving averages are used to smooth data.

Note: a data dump of previously reported results prevented the reporting system from normal processing of lab results on October 9th, causing an inaccurate representation of data for October 9th and October 10th. The most accurate way to interpret this data is to use an a combined average for these days.


COVID-19 Test Counts and Proportions

Full Data

This is a table of the most recent data we have available. We include data sources at the end of the document.
Date Positive Negative Total PropPositive
20-Mar 23 146 169 13.6094675
21-Mar 53 419 472 11.2288136
22-Mar 83 452 535 15.5140187
23-Mar 44 241 285 15.4385965
24-Mar 90 491 581 15.4905336
25-Mar 154 1079 1233 12.4898621
26-Mar 178 749 927 19.2017260
27-Mar 205 1066 1271 16.1290323
28-Mar 270 917 1187 22.7464195
29-Mar 362 1248 1610 22.4844720
30-Mar 278 963 1241 22.4012893
31-Mar 461 1613 2074 22.2275796
1-Apr 272 1569 1841 14.7745790
2-Apr 544 2413 2957 18.3970240
3-Apr 625 1878 2503 24.9700360
4-Apr 531 2521 3052 17.3984273
5-Apr 311 1260 1571 19.7963081
6-Apr 556 2309 2865 19.4066318
7-Apr 493 1990 2483 19.8550141
8-Apr 488 1113 1601 30.4809494
9-Apr 435 2636 3071 14.1647672
10-Apr 542 2505 3047 17.7879882
11-Apr 563 2732 3295 17.0864947
12-Apr 364 1614 1978 18.4024267
13-Apr 477 2267 2744 17.3833819
14-Apr 364 1663 2027 17.9575728
15-Apr 438 2392 2830 15.4770318
16-Apr 536 2767 3303 16.2276718
17-Apr 519 2901 3420 15.1754386
18-Apr 296 1509 1805 16.3988920
19-Apr 465 2690 3155 14.7385103
20-Apr 413 3232 3645 11.3305898
21-Apr 577 4230 4807 12.0033285
22-Apr 465 2701 3166 14.6873026
23-Apr 619 3647 4266 14.5100797
24-Apr 552 2852 3404 16.2162162
25-Apr 564 4136 4700 12.0000000
26-Apr 384 2576 2960 12.9729730
27-Apr 446 2789 3235 13.7867079
28-Apr 213 1333 1546 13.7774903
29-Apr 309 1704 2013 15.3502235
30-Apr 333 3724 4057 8.2080355
1-May 250 3616 3866 6.4666322
2-May 144 2183 2327 6.1882252
3-May 295 2896 3191 9.2447509
4-May 151 3900 4051 3.7274747
5-May 165 2231 2396 6.8864775
6-May 153 2296 2449 6.2474479
7-May 95 2091 2186 4.3458371
8-May 165 2623 2788 5.9182209
9-May 227 2209 2436 9.3185550
10-May 160 2551 2711 5.9018812
11-May 168 3426 3594 4.6744574
12-May 153 1662 1815 8.4297521
13-May 278 2216 2494 11.1467522
14-May 212 1722 1934 10.9617373
15-May 177 1898 2075 8.5301205
16-May 541 3026 3567 15.1668068
17-May 164 4187 4351 3.7692484
18-May 123 5305 5428 2.2660280
19-May 65 13644 13709 0.4741411
20-May 339 7261 7600 4.4605263
21-May 188 2643 2831 6.6407630
22-May 158 3143 3301 4.7864284
23-May 123 2491 2614 4.7054323
24-May 219 5544 5763 3.8001041
25-May 113 2819 2932 3.8540246
26-May 100 1785 1885 5.3050398
27-May 143 2693 2836 5.0423131
28-May 259 5670 5929 4.3683589
29-May 165 2454 2619 6.3001145
30-May 202 4104 4306 4.6911287
31-May 138 2921 3059 4.5112782
1-Jun 83 1042 1125 7.3777778
2-Jun 250 4639 4889 5.1135201
2-Jun 274 4952 5226 5.2430157
4-Jun 217 3909 4126 5.2593311
5-Jun 233 3111 3344 6.9677033
6-Jun 328 8882 9210 3.5613464
7-Jun 226 2674 2900 7.7931034
8-Jun 231 4255 4486 5.1493535
9-Jun 247 3249 3496 7.0652174
10-Jun 295 4861 5156 5.7214895
11-Jun 255 3967 4222 6.0397916
12-Jun 560 4866 5426 10.3206782
13-Jun 292 9250 9542 3.0601551
14-Jun 265 2724 2989 8.8658414
15-Jun 519 5222 5741 9.0402369
16-Jun 489 3337 3826 12.7809723
17-Jun 560 4422 4982 11.2404657
18-Jun 551 4415 4966 11.0954491
19-Jun 618 4668 5286 11.6912599
20-Jun 906 5877 6783 13.3569217
21-Jun 429 4344 4773 8.9880578
22-Jun 674 3030 3704 18.1965443
23-Jun 908 3838 4746 19.1319005
24-Jun 878 7689 8567 10.2486285
25-Jun 1511 9050 10561 14.3073573
26-Jun 1356 8243 9599 14.1264715
27-Jun 2137 9819 11956 17.8738709
28-Jun 1525 6621 8146 18.7208446
29-Jun 1590 7313 8903 17.8591486
30-Jun 1137 5059 6196 18.3505487
1-Jul 2295 9395 11690 19.6321642
2-Jul 2041 7666 9707 21.0260637
3-Jul 2436 10356 12792 19.0431520
4-Jul 2271 8757 11028 20.5930359
5-Jul 1976 7880 9856 20.0487013
6-Jul 2025 7562 9587 21.1223532
7-Jul 2931 10299 13230 22.1541950
8-Jul 2004 5557 7561 26.5044306
9-Jul 2348 9134 11482 20.4493991
10-Jul 2536 9205 11741 21.5995230
11-Jul 3571 17810 21381 16.7017445
12-Jul 3237 12641 15878 20.3866986
13-Jul 2115 7302 9417 22.4593820
14-Jul 2480 9742 12222 20.2912780
15-Jul 3083 13405 16488 18.6984474
16-Jul 2405 10672 13077 18.3910683
17-Jul 3125 14532 17657 17.6983633
18-Jul 3234 12353 15587 20.7480593
19-Jul 2850 9607 12457 22.8787027
20-Jul 2492 10364 12856 19.3839452
21-Jul 2748 13611 16359 16.7980928
22-Jul 2711 11784 14495 18.7030010
23-Jul 3341 13427 16768 19.9248569
24-Jul 3383 13720 17103 19.7801555
25-Jul 2895 13058 15953 18.1470570
26-Jul 2571 11432 14003 18.3603514
27-Jul 3023 14067 17090 17.6887068
28-Jul 2788 14193 16981 16.4183499
29-Jul 2759 12561 15320 18.0091384
30-Jul 2549 14373 16922 15.0632313
31-Jul 2747 14021 16768 16.3823950
1-Aug 1478 8132 9610 15.3798127
2-Aug 968 6631 7599 12.7385182
3-Aug 1125 6920 8045 13.9838409
4-Aug 1207 6513 7720 15.6347150
5-Aug 1711 11470 13181 12.9808057
6-Aug 1725 10119 11844 14.5643364
7-Aug 1800 11437 13237 13.5982473
8-Aug 1231 8806 10037 12.2646209
9-Aug 1155 9458 10613 10.8828795
10-Aug 1508 9506 11014 13.6916652
11-Aug 4087 18143 22230 18.3850652
12-Aug 1737 11765 13502 12.8647608
13-Aug 1695 13659 15354 11.0394685
14-Aug 1752 14573 16325 10.7320061
15-Aug 935 8089 9024 10.3612589
16-Aug 739 5229 5968 12.3827078
17-Aug 972 8234 9206 10.5583315
18-Aug 1109 10300 11409 9.7203962
19-Aug 1082 10085 11167 9.6892630
20-Aug 1151 10896 12047 9.5542459
21-Aug 946 12290 13236 7.1471744
22-Aug 771 7672 8443 9.1318252
23-Aug 512 5136 5648 9.0651558
24-Aug 811 7787 8598 9.4324261
25-Aug 782 9437 10219 7.6524122
26-Aug 624 7405 8029 7.7718271
27-Aug 665 8102 8767 7.5852629
28-Aug 603 7932 8535 7.0650264
29-Aug 522 7439 7961 6.5569652
30-Aug 343 4943 5286 6.4888384
31-Aug 840 9888 10728 7.8299776
1-Sep 336 6120 6456 5.2044610
2-Sep 579 7360 7939 7.2931100
3-Sep 481 7789 8270 5.8162031
4-Sep 557 8057 8614 6.4662178
5-Sep 335 5341 5676 5.9020437
6-Sep 278 5311 5589 4.9740562
7-Sep 367 6488 6855 5.3537564
8-Sep 437 6545 6982 6.2589516
9-Sep 456 7799 8255 5.5239249
10-Sep 451 8940 9391 4.8024705
11-Sep 438 8998 9436 4.6417974
12-Sep 295 6789 7084 4.1643139
13-Sep 254 5936 6190 4.1033926
14-Sep 416 8069 8485 4.9027696
15-Sep 457 9605 10062 4.5418406
16-Sep 457 11941 12398 3.6860784
17-Sep 409 10944 11353 3.6025720
18-Sep 558 13569 14127 3.9498832
19-Sep 383 7923 8306 4.6111245
20-Sep 283 7361 7644 3.7022501
21-Sep 357 6130 6487 5.5033143
22-Sep 374 7088 7462 5.0120611
23-Sep 391 8523 8914 4.3863585
24-Sep 503 8882 9385 5.3596164
25-Sep 379 8916 9295 4.0774610
26-Sep 279 6252 6531 4.2719339
27-Sep 71 2523 2594 2.7370856
28-Sep 624 8526 9150 6.8196721
29-Sep 351 6949 7300 4.8082192
30-Sep 515 9041 9556 5.3892842
1-Oct 507 9321 9828 5.1587302
2-Oct 482 8021 8503 5.6685876
3-Oct 344 7121 7465 4.6081715
4-Oct 199 6328 6527 3.0488739
5-Oct 454 7094 7548 6.0148384
6-Oct 409 10168 10577 3.8668810
7-Oct 450 10087 10537 4.2706653
8-Oct 395 9269 9664 4.0873344
9-Oct 285 3385 3670 7.7656676
10-Oct 708 15209 15917 4.4480744
11-Oct 296 6531 6827 4.3357258
12-Oct 473 10178 10651 4.4408976
13-Oct 430 8186 8616 4.9907149
14-Oct 535 10094 10629 5.0333992
15-Oct 531 12375 12906 4.1143654
16-Oct 539 10841 11380 4.7363796
17-Oct 446 9669 10115 4.4092931
18-Oct 394 9061 9455 4.1671074
19-Oct 552 10314 10866 5.0800663
20-Oct 339 6282 6621 5.1200725
21-Oct 830 15150 15980 5.1939925
22-Oct 514 15938 16452 3.1242402
23-Oct 598 23674 24272 2.4637442
24-Oct 306 8754 9060 3.3774834
25-Oct 592 9421 10013 5.9123140
26-Oct 724 12043 12767 5.6708702
27-Oct 727 12579 13306 5.4637006
28-Oct 666 12350 13016 5.1167793
29-Oct 856 14478 15334 5.5823660
30-Oct 336 5430 5766 5.8272633
31-Oct 1284 22069 23353 5.4982229
1-Nov 577 8617 9194 6.2758321
2-Nov 858 12093 12951 6.6249710
3-Nov 693 9381 10074 6.8790947
4-Nov 1377 18280 19657 7.0051381
5-Nov 1046 13878 14924 7.0088448
6-Nov 802 8664 9466 8.4724276
7-Nov 1693 21128 22821 7.4186057
8-Nov 512 5819 6331 8.0871900
9-Nov 399 5877 6276 6.3575526
10-Nov 658 10716 11374 5.7851240
11-Nov 1201 11562 12763 9.4100133
12-Nov 1848 17847 19695 9.3830922
13-Nov 1167 10823 11990 9.7331109
14-Nov 2339 24091 26430 8.8497919
15-Nov 994 11891 12885 7.7143966
16-Nov 1853 18338 20191 9.1773562
17-Nov 1660 15882 17542 9.4630031
18-Nov 1933 21382 23315 8.2907999
19-Nov 2020 20750 22770 8.8713219
20-Nov 1883 23195 25078 7.5085733
21-Nov 1722 19489 21211 8.1184291
22-Nov 1437 18530 19967 7.1968748
23-Nov 1785 21053 22838 7.8159208
24-Nov 2073 25723 27796 7.4579076
25-Nov 1935 28692 30627 6.3179547
26-Nov 1723 22765 24488 7.0360993
27-Nov 1462 16190 17652 8.2823476
28-Nov 1960 17570 19530 10.0358423


The data above show for each day since April 2: the number of positive COVID-19 tests, the number of negative COVID-19 tests, and the proportion of positive COVID-19 tests to total COVID-19 tests.

Total COVID-19 Tests by Day

We see the following pattern for the count of total tests. (shown on a log scale):

The average number of COVID-19 tests performed each day has increased from about 2,000 in early April to over 12,500 currently. Over the past two weeks there was an increase of 637.4 additional tests performed each day. Note: data plotted on a log scale.

Positive COVID-19 Tests by Day

We see the following pattern for the count of positive tests: