Miami-Dade County COVID-19 Trajectory

Introduction

Public understanding of science is critical in times of crisis. The following analysis was conducted to examine the trajectory of COVID-19 in Miami-Dade County. For phased reopening, the White House has set guidelines for local municipalities in their “Opening Up American Again” report. In the report, it is highly suggested that:

  1. Local areas show a downward trajectory in the number of positive cases as a percent of total tests over a two-week period, and
  2. Local hospitals have capacity to handle all patients without crisis care.

The analysis begins by looking at the number of new positive cases each day and the number of total tests performed each day. The figures are presented together because as there is more testing, there are likely to be more positive test results. Therefore, the proportion of positive cases is also calculated. Given either a flat or increasing number of tests performed, the proportion of positive cases is the key metric to be used when looking at epidemic trajectory. It is recommended that this proportion not exceed 5%.

Finally, to ensure hospitals can meet demand without crisis care, the COVID-19 positive hospitalization census, COVID-19 positive ICU census, and COVID-19 positive ventilation census is plotted over time. Census refers to the number of COVID-19 positive patients in the hospital, ICU, and on ventilators, respectively, on a given day. Note: 5-day moving averages are used to smooth data.

Note: a data dump of previously reported results prevented the reporting system from normal processing of lab results on October 9th, causing an inaccurate representation of data for October 9th and October 10th. The most accurate way to interpret this data is to use an a combined average for these days.


COVID-19 Test Counts and Proportions

Full Data

This is a table of the most recent data we have available. We include data sources at the end of the document.
Date Positive Negative Total PropPositive
2020-03-20 23 146 169 13.6094675
2020-03-21 53 419 472 11.2288136
2020-03-22 83 452 535 15.5140187
2020-03-23 44 241 285 15.4385965
2020-03-24 90 491 581 15.4905336
2020-03-25 154 1079 1233 12.4898621
2020-03-26 178 749 927 19.2017260
2020-03-27 205 1066 1271 16.1290323
2020-03-28 270 917 1187 22.7464195
2020-03-29 362 1248 1610 22.4844720
2020-03-30 278 963 1241 22.4012893
2020-03-31 461 1613 2074 22.2275796
2020-04-01 272 1569 1841 14.7745790
2020-04-02 544 2413 2957 18.3970240
2020-04-03 625 1878 2503 24.9700360
2020-04-04 531 2521 3052 17.3984273
2020-04-05 311 1260 1571 19.7963081
2020-04-06 556 2309 2865 19.4066318
2020-04-07 493 1990 2483 19.8550141
2020-04-08 488 1113 1601 30.4809494
2020-04-09 435 2636 3071 14.1647672
2020-04-10 542 2505 3047 17.7879882
2020-04-11 563 2732 3295 17.0864947
2020-04-12 364 1614 1978 18.4024267
2020-04-13 477 2267 2744 17.3833819
2020-04-14 364 1663 2027 17.9575728
2020-04-15 438 2392 2830 15.4770318
2020-04-16 536 2767 3303 16.2276718
2020-04-17 519 2901 3420 15.1754386
2020-04-18 296 1509 1805 16.3988920
2020-04-19 465 2690 3155 14.7385103
2020-04-20 413 3232 3645 11.3305898
2020-04-21 577 4230 4807 12.0033285
2020-04-22 465 2701 3166 14.6873026
2020-04-23 619 3647 4266 14.5100797
2020-04-24 552 2852 3404 16.2162162
2020-04-25 564 4136 4700 12.0000000
2020-04-26 384 2576 2960 12.9729730
2020-04-27 446 2789 3235 13.7867079
2020-04-28 213 1333 1546 13.7774903
2020-04-29 309 1704 2013 15.3502235
2020-04-30 333 3724 4057 8.2080355
2020-05-01 250 3616 3866 6.4666322
2020-05-02 144 2183 2327 6.1882252
2020-05-03 295 2896 3191 9.2447509
2020-05-04 151 3900 4051 3.7274747
2020-05-05 165 2231 2396 6.8864775
2020-05-06 153 2296 2449 6.2474479
2020-05-07 95 2091 2186 4.3458371
2020-05-08 165 2615 2780 5.9352518
2020-05-09 225 2208 2433 9.2478422
2020-05-10 159 2546 2705 5.8780037
2020-05-11 164 3420 3584 4.5758929
2020-05-12 153 1660 1813 8.4390513
2020-05-13 274 2214 2488 11.0128617
2020-05-14 213 1726 1939 10.9850438
2020-05-15 177 1927 2104 8.4125475
2020-05-16 544 3047 3591 15.1489836
2020-05-17 164 4218 4382 3.7425833
2020-05-18 123 5310 5433 2.2639426
2020-05-19 66 13671 13737 0.4804542
2020-05-20 343 7304 7647 4.4854191
2020-05-21 190 2649 2839 6.6924974
2020-05-22 158 3143 3301 4.7864284
2020-05-23 123 2491 2614 4.7054323
2020-05-24 219 5545 5764 3.7994448
2020-05-25 113 2819 2932 3.8540246
2020-05-26 100 1786 1886 5.3022269
2020-05-27 143 2693 2836 5.0423131
2020-05-28 259 5673 5932 4.3661497
2020-05-29 165 2458 2623 6.2905071
2020-05-30 202 4115 4317 4.6791754
2020-05-31 138 2921 3059 4.5112782
2020-06-01 83 1042 1125 7.3777778
2020-06-02 250 4639 4889 5.1135201
2020-06-03 274 4952 5226 5.2430157
2020-06-04 217 3909 4126 5.2593311
2020-06-05 233 3111 3344 6.9677033
2020-06-06 328 8882 9210 3.5613464
2020-06-07 226 2674 2900 7.7931034
2020-06-08 231 4255 4486 5.1493535
2020-06-09 247 3249 3496 7.0652174
2020-06-10 295 4861 5156 5.7214895
2020-06-11 255 3967 4222 6.0397916
2020-06-12 560 4866 5426 10.3206782
2020-06-13 523 9250 9773 5.3514786
2020-06-14 263 2732 2995 8.7813022
2020-06-15 523 5252 5775 9.0562771
2020-06-16 493 3352 3845 12.8218466
2020-06-17 561 4452 5013 11.1909037
2020-06-18 549 4444 4993 10.9953936
2020-06-19 615 4700 5315 11.5710254
2020-06-20 903 5927 6830 13.2210835
2020-06-21 511 2627 3138 16.2842575
2020-06-22 672 3059 3731 18.0112570
2020-06-23 945 3892 4837 19.5369030
2020-06-24 889 7909 8798 10.1045692
2020-06-25 1513 9146 10659 14.1945774
2020-06-26 1362 8345 9707 14.0311116
2020-06-27 2160 9961 12121 17.8203119
2020-06-28 1531 6742 8273 18.5059833
2020-06-29 1592 7403 8995 17.6987215
2020-06-30 1137 5059 6196 18.3505487
2020-07-01 2295 9395 11690 19.6321642
2020-07-02 2041 7688 9729 20.9785178
2020-07-03 2439 10392 12831 19.0086509
2020-07-04 2272 8775 11047 20.5666697
2020-07-05 1979 7927 9906 19.9777912
2020-07-06 2022 7620 9642 20.9707530
2020-07-07 2932 10431 13363 21.9411809
2020-07-08 2004 5620 7624 26.2854145
2020-07-09 2351 9242 11593 20.2794790
2020-07-10 2540 9276 11816 21.4962762
2020-07-11 3573 17957 21530 16.5954482
2020-07-12 3250 12793 16043 20.2580565
2020-07-13 2116 7402 9518 22.2315613
2020-07-14 2486 9917 12403 20.0435379
2020-07-15 3095 13572 16667 18.5696286
2020-07-16 2421 10791 13212 18.3242507
2020-07-17 3135 14744 17879 17.5345377
2020-07-18 3233 12522 15755 20.5204697
2020-07-19 2860 9768 12628 22.6480836
2020-07-20 2493 10485 12978 19.2094313
2020-07-21 2750 13795 16545 16.6213358
2020-07-22 2720 11963 14683 18.5248246
2020-07-23 3346 13642 16988 19.6962562
2020-07-24 3391 13876 17267 19.6386170
2020-07-25 2904 13198 16102 18.0350267
2020-07-26 2566 11604 14170 18.1086803
2020-07-27 3030 14268 17298 17.5164759
2020-07-28 2799 14371 17170 16.3016890
2020-07-29 2759 12710 15469 17.8356713
2020-07-30 2551 14563 17114 14.9059250
2020-07-31 2745 14158 16903 16.2397208
2020-08-01 1480 8232 9712 15.2388797
2020-08-02 974 6735 7709 12.6345830
2020-08-03 1122 7045 8167 13.7382148
2020-08-04 1210 6594 7804 15.5048693
2020-08-05 1713 11659 13372 12.8103500
2020-08-06 1738 10266 12004 14.4785072
2020-08-07 1808 11643 13451 13.4413798
2020-08-08 1233 8929 10162 12.1334383
2020-08-09 1157 9620 10777 10.7358263
2020-08-10 1510 9566 11076 13.6330805
2020-08-11 1162 8655 9817 11.8366100
2020-08-12 1740 11871 13611 12.7837778
2020-08-13 1697 13798 15495 10.9519200
2020-08-14 1755 14701 16456 10.6648031
2020-08-15 937 8176 9113 10.2820147
2020-08-16 740 5291 6031 12.2699387
2020-08-17 975 8315 9290 10.4951561
2020-08-18 1121 10387 11508 9.7410497
2020-08-19 1090 10209 11299 9.6468714
2020-08-20 1159 10974 12133 9.5524602
2020-08-21 901 12393 13294 6.7774936
2020-08-22 724 7742 8466 8.5518545
2020-08-23 519 5178 5697 9.1100579
2020-08-24 811 7849 8660 9.3648961
2020-08-25 790 9510 10300 7.6699029
2020-08-26 627 7462 8089 7.7512672
2020-08-27 673 8163 8836 7.6165686
2020-08-28 607 7986 8593 7.0638892
2020-08-29 533 7509 8042 6.6277046
2020-08-30 343 4943 5286 6.4888384
2020-08-31 848 9886 10734 7.9001304
2020-09-01 338 6128 6466 5.2273430
2020-09-02 582 7377 7959 7.3124764
2020-09-03 486 7816 8302 5.8540111
2020-09-04 573 8083 8656 6.6196858
2020-09-05 351 5327 5678 6.1817541
2020-09-06 282 5332 5614 5.0231564
2020-09-07 377 6517 6894 5.4685234
2020-09-08 439 6565 7004 6.2678469
2020-09-09 464 7834 8298 5.5917088
2020-09-10 453 8988 9441 4.7982205
2020-09-11 445 9042 9487 4.6906293
2020-09-12 305 6829 7134 4.2753014
2020-09-13 260 5961 6221 4.1793924
2020-09-14 416 8089 8505 4.8912404
2020-09-15 451 9639 10090 4.4697721
2020-09-16 458 11970 12428 3.6852269
2020-09-17 409 11008 11417 3.5823772
2020-09-18 566 13630 14196 3.9870386
2020-09-19 387 8067 8454 4.5777147
2020-09-20 282 7412 7694 3.6651937
2020-09-21 357 6142 6499 5.4931528
2020-09-22 376 7115 7491 5.0193566
2020-09-23 394 8566 8960 4.3973214
2020-09-24 501 8929 9430 5.3128314
2020-09-25 375 8954 9329 4.0197234
2020-09-26 279 6292 6571 4.2459291
2020-09-27 71 2556 2627 2.7027027
2020-09-28 624 8526 9150 6.8196721
2020-09-29 351 6949 7300 4.8082192
2020-09-30 515 9041 9556 5.3892842
2020-10-01 503 9381 9884 5.0890328
2020-10-02 481 8063 8544 5.6296816
2020-10-03 344 7146 7490 4.5927904
2020-10-04 200 6373 6573 3.0427506
2020-10-05 459 7132 7591 6.0466342
2020-10-06 412 10202 10614 3.8816657
2020-10-07 453 10134 10587 4.2788325
2020-10-08 395 9297 9692 4.0755262
2020-10-09 498 9327 9825 5.0687023
2020-10-10 499 9327 9826 5.0783635
2020-10-11 297 6576 6873 4.3212571
2020-10-12 477 10225 10702 4.4571108
2020-10-13 442 8254 8696 5.0827967
2020-10-14 540 10179 10719 5.0377834
2020-10-15 532 12419 12951 4.1077909
2020-10-16 538 10852 11390 4.7234416
2020-10-17 447 9704 10151 4.4035070
2020-10-18 397 9144 9541 4.1609894
2020-10-19 553 10393 10946 5.0520738
2020-10-20 341 6317 6658 5.1216582
2020-10-21 829 15242 16071 5.1583598
2020-10-22 517 16083 16600 3.1144578
2020-10-23 598 23824 24422 2.4486119
2020-10-24 313 8801 9114 3.4342769
2020-10-25 592 9507 10099 5.8619665
2020-10-26 724 12145 12869 5.6259228
2020-10-27 727 12717 13444 5.4076168
2020-10-28 664 12492 13156 5.0471268
2020-10-29 862 14665 15527 5.5516198
2020-10-30 337 5498 5835 5.7754927
2020-10-31 1284 22374 23658 5.4273396
2020-11-01 577 8617 9194 6.2758321
2020-11-02 858 12093 12951 6.6249710
2020-11-03 693 9381 10074 6.8790947
2020-11-04 1377 18280 19657 7.0051381
2020-11-05 1046 13878 14924 7.0088448
2020-11-06 802 8664 9466 8.4724276
2020-11-07 1693 21128 22821 7.4186057
2020-11-08 512 5819 6331 8.0871900
2020-11-09 399 5877 6276 6.3575526
2020-11-10 658 10716 11374 5.7851240
2020-11-11 1201 11562 12763 9.4100133
2020-11-12 1848 17847 19695 9.3830922
2020-11-13 1167 10823 11990 9.7331109
2020-11-14 2339 24091 26430 8.8497919
2020-11-15 994 11891 12885 7.7143966
2020-11-16 1853 18338 20191 9.1773562
2020-11-17 1660 15882 17542 9.4630031
2020-11-18 1933 21382 23315 8.2907999
2020-11-19 2020 20750 22770 8.8713219
2020-11-20 1883 23195 25078 7.5085733
2020-11-21 1722 19489 21211 8.1184291
2020-11-22 1442 18298 19740 7.3049645
2020-11-23 1785 20767 22552 7.9150408
2020-11-24 2072 25386 27458 7.5460704
2020-11-25 1942 28281 30223 6.4255699
2020-11-26 1728 22500 24228 7.1322437
2020-11-27 1468 15886 17354 8.4591449
2020-11-28 1962 17154 19116 10.2636535
2020-11-29 1967 17225 19192 10.2490621
2020-11-30 2114 19134 21248 9.9491717
2020-12-01 2257 20327 22584 9.9938009
2020-12-02 2226 20948 23174 9.6055925
2020-12-03 2453 27020 29473 8.3228718
2020-12-04 2206 24858 27064 8.1510494
2020-12-05 1962 20696 22658 8.6591932
2020-12-06 2018 21002 23020 8.7662902
2020-12-07 1659 18689 20348 8.1531354
2020-12-08 2091 24555 26646 7.8473317
2020-12-09 2266 23480 25746 8.8013672
2020-12-10 2130 24093 26223 8.1226404
2020-12-11 2062 22579 24641 8.3681669
2020-12-12 2393 22513 24906 9.6081266
2020-12-13 2274 21914 24188 9.4013560
2020-12-14 2110 20664 22774 9.2649513
2020-12-15 2354 23151 25505 9.2295628
2020-12-16 2521 25302 27823 9.0608489
2020-12-17 2408 26551 28959 8.3152043
2020-12-18 2353 25708 28061 8.3853034
2020-12-19 1968 21349 23317 8.4401938
2020-12-20 2250 23908 26158 8.6015750
2020-12-21 2255 23820 26075 8.6481304
2020-12-22 2195 26344 28539 7.6912295
2020-12-23 2275 30629 32904 6.9140530
2020-12-24 1853 24821 26674 6.9468396
2020-12-25 1472 13677 15149 9.7168130
2020-12-26 1591 14308 15899 10.0069187
2020-12-27 2072 16475 18547 11.1716181
2020-12-28 2803 8590 11393 24.6028263
2020-12-29 2684 34976 37660 7.1269251
2020-12-30 2851 25247 28098 10.1466297
2020-12-31 3646 33896 37542 9.7117895
2021-01-01 1646 15584 17230 9.5531050
2021-01-02 1581 9984 11565 13.6705577
2021-01-03 2617 20403 23020 11.3683753
2021-01-04 3319 26332 29651 11.1935517
2021-01-05 3084 26415 29499 10.4545917
2021-01-06 3338 28492 31830 10.4869620
2021-01-07 3337 28593 31930 10.4509865
2021-01-08 2565 24550 27115 9.4597086
2021-01-09 2401 24894 27295 8.7964829
2021-01-10 2227 22069 24296 9.1661179
2021-01-11 2927 27469 30396 9.6295565
2021-01-12 2520 24262 26782 9.4093048
2021-01-13 2464 24619 27083 9.0979581
2021-01-14 2687 26668 29355 9.1534662
2021-01-15 2415 25698 28113 8.5903319
2021-01-16 2393 22837 25230 9.4847404
2021-01-17 1819 18033 19852 9.1628048
2021-01-18 1869 19836 21705 8.6109191
2021-01-19 2260 18482 20742 10.8957670
2021-01-20 2133 25291 27424 7.7778588
2021-01-21 2256 18275 20531 10.9882617
2021-01-22 2298 33619 35917 6.3980845
2021-01-23 1776 20956 22732 7.8127749
2021-01-24 2018 22175 24193 8.3412557
2021-01-25 1741 18624 20365 8.5489811
2021-01-26 1488 16413 17901 8.3123848
2021-01-27 1990 25562 27552 7.2227062
2021-01-28 2004 11310 13314 15.0518251
2021-01-29 2472 39807 42279 5.8468743
2021-01-30 1472 24388 25860 5.6921887
2021-01-31 1278 14826 16104 7.9359165
2021-02-01 1882 21999 23881 7.8807420
2021-02-02 1192 14513 15705 7.5899395
2021-02-03 1409 16352 17761 7.9331119
2021-02-04 2346 29608 31954 7.3418038
2021-02-05 1444 21827 23271 6.2051480
2021-02-06 1529 19747 21276 7.1865012
2021-02-07 1300 15871 17171 7.5709044
2021-02-08 1482 20138 21620 6.8547641
2021-02-09 1496 21290 22786 6.5654349
2021-02-10 1555 21243 22798 6.8207738
2021-02-11 1617 23985 25602 6.3159128
2021-02-12 1406 21460 22866 6.1488673
2021-02-13 1333 18248 19581 6.8076196
2021-02-14 660 10219 10879 6.0667341
2021-02-15 1483 20995 22478 6.5975621
2021-02-16 1392 20366 21758 6.3976468
2021-02-17 838 12958 13796 6.0742244
2021-02-18 1566 23681 25247 6.2027172
2021-02-19 1511 24288 25799 5.8568162
2021-02-20 1119 16380 17499 6.3946511
2021-02-21 999 12561 13560 7.3672566
2021-02-22 1255 19345 20600 6.0922330
2021-02-23 1122 18584 19706 5.6936974
2021-02-24 1420 23260 24680 5.7536467
2021-02-25 1164 20148 21312 5.4617117
2021-02-26 1192 18618 19810 6.0171630
2021-02-27 1479 16570 18049 8.1943598
2021-02-28 337 5497 5834 5.7764827
2021-03-01 1912 37062 38974 4.9058347
2021-03-02 1407 14405 15812 8.8983051
2021-03-03 1298 21278 22576 5.7494685
2021-03-04 1410 22522 23932 5.8916931
2021-03-05 1053 18344 19397 5.4286745
2021-03-06 1087 16722 17809 6.1036555
2021-03-07 894 14629 15523 5.7591960
2021-03-08 1112 17575 18687 5.9506609
2021-03-09 1083 18269 19352 5.5963208
2021-03-10 1154 19178 20332 5.6757820
2021-03-11 1128 19070 20198 5.5847114
2021-03-12 1276 19771 21047 6.0626218
2021-03-13 834 12864 13698 6.0884801
2021-03-14 740 11475 12215 6.0581253
2021-03-15 1322 20379 21701 6.0918852
2021-03-16 1027 15852 16879 6.0844837
2021-03-17 1906 18605 20511 9.2925747
2021-03-18 1199 19237 20436 5.8670973
2021-03-19 1245 20453 21698 5.7378560
2021-03-20 939 13248 14187 6.6187355
2021-03-21 832 11930 12762 6.5193543
2021-03-22 1272 19018 20290 6.2690981
2021-03-23 1047 16478 17525 5.9743224
2021-03-24 1263 21401 22664 5.5727144
2021-03-25 1298 23126 24424 5.3144448
2021-03-26 1284 20392 21676 5.9236021
2021-03-27 1029 16011 17040 6.0387324
2021-03-28 982 12010 12992 7.5584975
2021-03-29 1271 18253 19524 6.5099365
2021-03-30 968 14070 15038 6.4370262
2021-03-31 1572 20355 21927 7.1692434
2021-04-01 1404 19067 20471 6.8584827
2021-04-02 1386 18790 20176 6.8695480
2021-04-03 1176 15922 17098 6.8779974
2021-04-04 888 11614 12502 7.1028635
2021-04-05 1485 19412 20897 7.1062832
2021-04-06 1064 13861 14925 7.1289782
2021-04-07 1919 24064 25983 7.3855983
2021-04-08 1591 20445 22036 7.2200036
2021-04-09 1571 20121 21692 7.2423013
2021-04-10 1201 15309 16510 7.2743792
2021-04-11 398 3967 4365 9.1179840
2021-04-12 2312 26970 29282 7.8956355
2021-04-13 1184 15871 17055 6.9422457
2021-04-14 1435 18172 19607 7.3188147
2021-04-15 1443 19798 21241 6.7934655
2021-04-16 1460 19153 20613 7.0829088
2021-04-17 1401 13914 15315 9.1478942
2021-04-18 961 12350 13311 7.2195928
2021-04-19 1341 18181 19522 6.8691732
2021-04-20 1146 16300 17446 6.5688410
2021-04-21 1163 18154 19317 6.0206036
2021-04-22 954 13203 14157 6.7387158
2021-04-23 1482 22081 23563 6.2895217
2021-04-24 927 14216 15143 6.1216404
2021-04-25 799 10616 11415 6.9995620
2021-04-26 1043 16169 17212 6.0597258
2021-04-27 910 16376 17286 5.2643758
2021-04-28 1067 18122 19189 5.5604774
2021-04-29 931 16179 17110 5.4412624
2021-04-30 1133 18352 19485 5.8147293
2021-05-01 828 13441 14269 5.8027893
2021-05-02 738 12879 13617 5.4196960
2021-05-03 784 12979 13763 5.6964325
2021-05-04 762 14762 15524 4.9085287
2021-05-05 844 16958 17802 4.7410403
2021-05-06 807 17065 17872 4.5154432
2021-05-07 805 16166 16971 4.7433858
2021-05-08 648 13240 13888 4.6658986
2021-05-09 495 12097 12592 3.9310673
2021-05-10 669 15111 15780 4.2395437
2021-05-11 509 12561 13070 3.8944147
2021-05-12 773 17725 18498 4.1788301
2021-05-13 695 17077 17772 3.9106460
2021-05-14 625 15774 16399 3.8112080


The data above show for each day since April 2: the number of positive COVID-19 tests, the number of negative COVID-19 tests, and the proportion of positive COVID-19 tests to total COVID-19 tests.

Total COVID-19 Tests by Day

We see the following pattern for the count of total tests. (shown on a log scale):

The average number of COVID-19 tests performed each day has increased from about 2,000 in early April to over 12,500 currently. Over the past two weeks there was a decrease of -127.8 fewer tests performed each day. Note: data plotted on a log scale.

Positive COVID-19 Tests by Day

We see the following pattern for the count of positive tests: