Miami-Dade County COVID-19 Trajectory

Introduction

Public understanding of science is critical in times of crisis. The following analysis was conducted to examine the trajectory of COVID-19 in Miami-Dade County. For phased reopening, the White House has set guidelines for local municipalities in their “Opening Up American Again” report. In the report, it is highly suggested that:

  1. Local areas show a downward trajectory in the number of positive cases as a percent of total tests over a two-week period, and
  2. Local hospitals have capacity to handle all patients without crisis care.

The analysis begins by looking at the number of new positive cases each day and the number of total tests performed each day. The figures are presented together because as there is more testing, there are likely to be more positive test results. Therefore, the proportion of positive cases is also calculated. Given either a flat or increasing number of tests performed, the proportion of positive cases is the key metric to be used when looking at epidemic trajectory. It is recommended that this proportion not exceed 5%.

Finally, to ensure hospitals can meet demand without crisis care, the COVID-19 positive hospitalization census, COVID-19 positive ICU census, and COVID-19 positive ventilation census is plotted over time. Census refers to the number of COVID-19 positive patients in the hospital, ICU, and on ventilators, respectively, on a given day.


COVID-19 Test Counts and Proportions

Full Data

This is a table of the most recent data we have available. We include data sources at the end of the document.
Date Positive Negative Total PropPositive
20-Mar 23 146 169 13.6094675
21-Mar 53 419 472 11.2288136
22-Mar 83 452 535 15.5140187
23-Mar 44 241 285 15.4385965
24-Mar 90 491 581 15.4905336
25-Mar 154 1079 1233 12.4898621
26-Mar 178 749 927 19.2017260
27-Mar 205 1066 1271 16.1290323
28-Mar 270 917 1187 22.7464195
29-Mar 362 1248 1610 22.4844720
30-Mar 278 963 1241 22.4012893
31-Mar 461 1613 2074 22.2275796
1-Apr 272 1569 1841 14.7745790
2-Apr 544 2413 2957 18.3970240
3-Apr 625 1878 2503 24.9700360
4-Apr 531 2521 3052 17.3984273
5-Apr 311 1260 1571 19.7963081
6-Apr 556 2309 2865 19.4066318
7-Apr 493 1990 2483 19.8550141
8-Apr 488 1113 1601 30.4809494
9-Apr 435 2636 3071 14.1647672
10-Apr 542 2505 3047 17.7879882
11-Apr 563 2732 3295 17.0864947
12-Apr 364 1614 1978 18.4024267
13-Apr 477 2267 2744 17.3833819
14-Apr 364 1663 2027 17.9575728
15-Apr 438 2392 2830 15.4770318
16-Apr 536 2767 3303 16.2276718
17-Apr 519 2901 3420 15.1754386
18-Apr 296 1509 1805 16.3988920
19-Apr 465 2690 3155 14.7385103
20-Apr 413 3232 3645 11.3305898
21-Apr 577 4230 4807 12.0033285
22-Apr 465 2701 3166 14.6873026
23-Apr 619 3647 4266 14.5100797
24-Apr 552 2852 3404 16.2162162
25-Apr 564 4136 4700 12.0000000
26-Apr 384 2576 2960 12.9729730
27-Apr 446 2789 3235 13.7867079
28-Apr 213 1333 1546 13.7774903
29-Apr 309 1704 2013 15.3502235
30-Apr 333 3724 4057 8.2080355
1-May 250 3616 3866 6.4666322
2-May 144 2183 2327 6.1882252
3-May 295 2896 3191 9.2447509
4-May 151 3900 4051 3.7274747
5-May 165 2231 2396 6.8864775
6-May 153 2296 2449 6.2474479
7-May 95 2091 2186 4.3458371
8-May 165 2615 2780 5.9352518
9-May 225 2208 2433 9.2478422
10-May 159 2546 2705 5.8780037
11-May 164 3420 3584 4.5758929
12-May 153 1660 1813 8.4390513
13-May 274 2214 2488 11.0128617
14-May 213 1726 1939 10.9850438
15-May 177 1927 2104 8.4125475
16-May 544 3047 3591 15.1489836
17-May 164 4218 4382 3.7425833
18-May 123 5310 5433 2.2639426
19-May 66 13671 13737 0.4804542
20-May 343 7304 7647 4.4854191
21-May 190 2649 2839 6.6924974
22-May 158 3143 3301 4.7864284
23-May 123 2491 2614 4.7054323
24-May 219 5545 5764 3.7994448
25-May 113 2819 2932 3.8540246
26-May 100 1786 1886 5.3022269
27-May 143 2693 2836 5.0423131
28-May 259 5673 5932 4.3661497
29-May 165 2458 2623 6.2905071
30-May 202 4115 4317 4.6791754
31-May 138 2921 3059 4.5112782
1-Jun 83 1042 1125 7.3777778
2-Jun 250 4639 4889 5.1135201
3-Jun 274 4952 5226 5.2430157
4-Jun 217 3909 4126 5.2593311
5-Jun 233 3111 3344 6.9677033
6-Jun 328 8882 9210 3.5613464
7-Jun 226 2674 2900 7.7931034
8-Jun 231 4255 4486 5.1493535
9-Jun 247 3249 3496 7.0652174
10-Jun 295 4861 5156 5.7214895
11-Jun 255 3967 4222 6.0397916
12-Jun 560 4866 5426 10.3206782
13-Jun 523 9250 9773 5.3514786
14-Jun 263 2732 2995 8.7813022
15-Jun 523 5252 5775 9.0562771
16-Jun 493 3352 3845 12.8218466
17-Jun 561 4452 5013 11.1909037
18-Jun 549 4444 4993 10.9953936
19-Jun 615 4700 5315 11.5710254
20-Jun 903 5927 6830 13.2210835
21-Jun 511 2627 3138 16.2842575
22-Jun 672 3059 3731 18.0112570
23-Jun 945 3892 4837 19.5369030
24-Jun 889 7909 8798 10.1045692
25-Jun 1513 9146 10659 14.1945774
26-Jun 1362 8345 9707 14.0311116
27-Jun 2160 9961 12121 17.8203119
28-Jun 1531 6742 8273 18.5059833
29-Jun 1592 7403 8995 17.6987215
30-Jun 1137 5059 6196 18.3505487
1-Jul 2295 9395 11690 19.6321642
2-Jul 2041 7688 9729 20.9785178
3-Jul 2439 10392 12831 19.0086509
4-Jul 2272 8775 11047 20.5666697
5-Jul 1979 7927 9906 19.9777912
6-Jul 2022 7620 9642 20.9707530
7-Jul 2932 10431 13363 21.9411809
8-Jul 2004 5620 7624 26.2854145
9-Jul 2349 9263 11612 20.2290734
10-Jul 2535 9312 11847 21.3978222
11-Jul 3573 18093 21666 16.4912767
12-Jul 3238 12846 16084 20.1318080
13-Jul 2104 7425 9529 22.0799664


The data above show for each day since April 2: the number of positive COVID-19 tests, the number of negative COVID-19 tests, and the proportion of positive COVID-19 tests to total COVID-19 tests.

Total COVID-19 Tests by Day

We see the following pattern for the count of total tests over the past two months (shown on a log scale):

The average number of COVID-19 tests performed each day has increased from about 2,000 in early April to over 10,000 in July. On average, from 20 March until 13 July, there was an increase of approximately 82 addition tests performed each day over the previous day. This data is presented on a log scale.

Positive COVID-19 Tests by Day

We see the following pattern for the count of positive tests over the past two months: