Miami-Dade County COVID-19 Trajectory

Introduction

Public understanding of science is critical in times of crisis. The following analysis was conducted to examine the trajectory of COVID-19 in Miami-Dade County. For phased reopening, the White House has set guidelines for local municipalities in their “Opening Up American Again” report. In the report, it is highly suggested that:

Local areas show a downward trajectory in the number of positive cases as a percent of total tests over a two-week period, and
Local hospitals have capacity to handle all patients without crisis care.

The analysis begins by looking at the number of new positive cases each day and the number of total tests performed each day. The figures are presented together because as there is more testing, there are likely to be more positive test results. Therefore, the proportion of positive cases is also calculated. Given either a flat or increasing number of tests performed, the proportion of positive cases is the key metric to be used when looking at epidemic trajectory. It is recommended that this proportion not exceed 5%.

Finally, to ensure hospitals can meet demand without crisis care, the COVID-19 positive hospitalization census, COVID-19 positive ICU census, and COVID-19 positive ventilation census is plotted over time. Census refers to the number of COVID-19 positive patients in the hospital, ICU, and on ventilators, respectively, on a given day. Note: 5-day moving averages are used to smooth data.

Note: a data dump of previously reported results prevented the reporting system from normal processing of lab results on October 9th, causing an inaccurate representation of data for October 9th and October 10th. The most accurate way to interpret this data is to use an a combined average for these days.

COVID-19 Test Counts and Proportions

Full Data

This is a table of the most recent data we have available. We include data sources at the end of the document.

Date	Positive	Negative	Total	PropPositive
2020-03-20	23	146	169	13.6094675
2020-03-21	53	419	472	11.2288136
2020-03-22	83	452	535	15.5140187
2020-03-23	44	241	285	15.4385965
2020-03-24	90	491	581	15.4905336
2020-03-25	154	1079	1233	12.4898621
2020-03-26	178	749	927	19.2017260
2020-03-27	205	1066	1271	16.1290323
2020-03-28	270	917	1187	22.7464195
2020-03-29	362	1248	1610	22.4844720
2020-03-30	278	963	1241	22.4012893
2020-03-31	461	1613	2074	22.2275796
2020-04-01	272	1569	1841	14.7745790
2020-04-02	544	2413	2957	18.3970240
2020-04-03	625	1878	2503	24.9700360
2020-04-04	531	2521	3052	17.3984273
2020-04-05	311	1260	1571	19.7963081
2020-04-06	556	2309	2865	19.4066318
2020-04-07	493	1990	2483	19.8550141
2020-04-08	488	1113	1601	30.4809494
2020-04-09	435	2636	3071	14.1647672
2020-04-10	542	2505	3047	17.7879882
2020-04-11	563	2732	3295	17.0864947
2020-04-12	364	1614	1978	18.4024267
2020-04-13	477	2267	2744	17.3833819
2020-04-14	364	1663	2027	17.9575728
2020-04-15	438	2392	2830	15.4770318
2020-04-16	536	2767	3303	16.2276718
2020-04-17	519	2901	3420	15.1754386
2020-04-18	296	1509	1805	16.3988920
2020-04-19	465	2690	3155	14.7385103
2020-04-20	413	3232	3645	11.3305898
2020-04-21	577	4230	4807	12.0033285
2020-04-22	465	2701	3166	14.6873026
2020-04-23	619	3647	4266	14.5100797
2020-04-24	552	2852	3404	16.2162162
2020-04-25	564	4136	4700	12.0000000
2020-04-26	384	2576	2960	12.9729730
2020-04-27	446	2789	3235	13.7867079
2020-04-28	213	1333	1546	13.7774903
2020-04-29	309	1704	2013	15.3502235
2020-04-30	333	3724	4057	8.2080355
2020-05-01	250	3616	3866	6.4666322
2020-05-02	144	2183	2327	6.1882252
2020-05-03	295	2896	3191	9.2447509
2020-05-04	151	3900	4051	3.7274747
2020-05-05	165	2231	2396	6.8864775
2020-05-06	153	2296	2449	6.2474479
2020-05-07	95	2091	2186	4.3458371
2020-05-08	165	2615	2780	5.9352518
2020-05-09	225	2208	2433	9.2478422
2020-05-10	159	2546	2705	5.8780037
2020-05-11	164	3420	3584	4.5758929
2020-05-12	153	1660	1813	8.4390513
2020-05-13	274	2214	2488	11.0128617
2020-05-14	213	1726	1939	10.9850438
2020-05-15	177	1927	2104	8.4125475
2020-05-16	544	3047	3591	15.1489836
2020-05-17	164	4218	4382	3.7425833
2020-05-18	123	5310	5433	2.2639426
2020-05-19	66	13671	13737	0.4804542
2020-05-20	343	7304	7647	4.4854191
2020-05-21	190	2649	2839	6.6924974
2020-05-22	158	3143	3301	4.7864284
2020-05-23	123	2491	2614	4.7054323
2020-05-24	219	5545	5764	3.7994448
2020-05-25	113	2819	2932	3.8540246
2020-05-26	100	1786	1886	5.3022269
2020-05-27	143	2693	2836	5.0423131
2020-05-28	259	5673	5932	4.3661497
2020-05-29	165	2458	2623	6.2905071
2020-05-30	202	4115	4317	4.6791754
2020-05-31	138	2921	3059	4.5112782
2020-06-01	83	1042	1125	7.3777778
2020-06-02	250	4639	4889	5.1135201
2020-06-03	274	4952	5226	5.2430157
2020-06-04	217	3909	4126	5.2593311
2020-06-05	233	3111	3344	6.9677033
2020-06-06	328	8882	9210	3.5613464
2020-06-07	226	2674	2900	7.7931034
2020-06-08	231	4255	4486	5.1493535
2020-06-09	247	3249	3496	7.0652174
2020-06-10	295	4861	5156	5.7214895
2020-06-11	255	3967	4222	6.0397916
2020-06-12	560	4866	5426	10.3206782
2020-06-13	523	9250	9773	5.3514786
2020-06-14	263	2732	2995	8.7813022
2020-06-15	523	5252	5775	9.0562771
2020-06-16	493	3352	3845	12.8218466
2020-06-17	561	4452	5013	11.1909037
2020-06-18	549	4444	4993	10.9953936
2020-06-19	615	4700	5315	11.5710254
2020-06-20	903	5927	6830	13.2210835
2020-06-21	511	2627	3138	16.2842575
2020-06-22	672	3059	3731	18.0112570
2020-06-23	945	3892	4837	19.5369030
2020-06-24	889	7909	8798	10.1045692
2020-06-25	1513	9146	10659	14.1945774
2020-06-26	1362	8345	9707	14.0311116
2020-06-27	2160	9961	12121	17.8203119
2020-06-28	1531	6742	8273	18.5059833
2020-06-29	1592	7403	8995	17.6987215
2020-06-30	1137	5059	6196	18.3505487
2020-07-01	2295	9395	11690	19.6321642
2020-07-02	2041	7688	9729	20.9785178
2020-07-03	2439	10392	12831	19.0086509
2020-07-04	2272	8775	11047	20.5666697
2020-07-05	1979	7927	9906	19.9777912
2020-07-06	2022	7620	9642	20.9707530
2020-07-07	2932	10431	13363	21.9411809
2020-07-08	2004	5620	7624	26.2854145
2020-07-09	2351	9242	11593	20.2794790
2020-07-10	2540	9276	11816	21.4962762
2020-07-11	3573	17957	21530	16.5954482
2020-07-12	3250	12793	16043	20.2580565
2020-07-13	2116	7402	9518	22.2315613
2020-07-14	2486	9917	12403	20.0435379
2020-07-15	3095	13572	16667	18.5696286
2020-07-16	2421	10791	13212	18.3242507
2020-07-17	3135	14744	17879	17.5345377
2020-07-18	3233	12522	15755	20.5204697
2020-07-19	2860	9768	12628	22.6480836
2020-07-20	2493	10485	12978	19.2094313
2020-07-21	2750	13795	16545	16.6213358
2020-07-22	2720	11963	14683	18.5248246
2020-07-23	3346	13642	16988	19.6962562
2020-07-24	3391	13876	17267	19.6386170
2020-07-25	2904	13198	16102	18.0350267
2020-07-26	2566	11604	14170	18.1086803
2020-07-27	3030	14268	17298	17.5164759
2020-07-28	2799	14371	17170	16.3016890
2020-07-29	2759	12710	15469	17.8356713
2020-07-30	2551	14563	17114	14.9059250
2020-07-31	2745	14158	16903	16.2397208
2020-08-01	1480	8232	9712	15.2388797
2020-08-02	974	6735	7709	12.6345830
2020-08-03	1122	7045	8167	13.7382148
2020-08-04	1210	6594	7804	15.5048693
2020-08-05	1713	11659	13372	12.8103500
2020-08-06	1738	10266	12004	14.4785072
2020-08-07	1808	11643	13451	13.4413798
2020-08-08	1233	8929	10162	12.1334383
2020-08-09	1157	9620	10777	10.7358263
2020-08-10	1510	9566	11076	13.6330805
2020-08-11	1162	8655	9817	11.8366100
2020-08-12	1740	11871	13611	12.7837778
2020-08-13	1697	13798	15495	10.9519200
2020-08-14	1755	14701	16456	10.6648031
2020-08-15	937	8176	9113	10.2820147
2020-08-16	740	5291	6031	12.2699387
2020-08-17	975	8315	9290	10.4951561
2020-08-18	1121	10387	11508	9.7410497
2020-08-19	1090	10209	11299	9.6468714
2020-08-20	1159	10974	12133	9.5524602
2020-08-21	901	12393	13294	6.7774936
2020-08-22	724	7742	8466	8.5518545
2020-08-23	519	5178	5697	9.1100579
2020-08-24	811	7849	8660	9.3648961
2020-08-25	790	9510	10300	7.6699029
2020-08-26	627	7462	8089	7.7512672
2020-08-27	673	8163	8836	7.6165686
2020-08-28	607	7986	8593	7.0638892
2020-08-29	533	7509	8042	6.6277046
2020-08-30	343	4943	5286	6.4888384
2020-08-31	848	9886	10734	7.9001304
2020-09-01	338	6128	6466	5.2273430
2020-09-02	582	7377	7959	7.3124764
2020-09-03	486	7816	8302	5.8540111
2020-09-04	573	8083	8656	6.6196858
2020-09-05	351	5327	5678	6.1817541
2020-09-06	282	5332	5614	5.0231564
2020-09-07	377	6517	6894	5.4685234
2020-09-08	439	6565	7004	6.2678469
2020-09-09	464	7834	8298	5.5917088
2020-09-10	453	8988	9441	4.7982205
2020-09-11	445	9042	9487	4.6906293
2020-09-12	305	6829	7134	4.2753014
2020-09-13	260	5961	6221	4.1793924
2020-09-14	416	8089	8505	4.8912404
2020-09-15	451	9639	10090	4.4697721
2020-09-16	458	11970	12428	3.6852269
2020-09-17	409	11008	11417	3.5823772
2020-09-18	566	13630	14196	3.9870386
2020-09-19	387	8067	8454	4.5777147
2020-09-20	282	7412	7694	3.6651937
2020-09-21	357	6142	6499	5.4931528
2020-09-22	376	7115	7491	5.0193566
2020-09-23	394	8566	8960	4.3973214
2020-09-24	501	8929	9430	5.3128314
2020-09-25	375	8954	9329	4.0197234
2020-09-26	279	6292	6571	4.2459291
2020-09-27	71	2556	2627	2.7027027
2020-09-28	624	8526	9150	6.8196721
2020-09-29	351	6949	7300	4.8082192
2020-09-30	515	9041	9556	5.3892842
2020-10-01	503	9381	9884	5.0890328
2020-10-02	481	8063	8544	5.6296816
2020-10-03	344	7146	7490	4.5927904
2020-10-04	200	6373	6573	3.0427506
2020-10-05	459	7132	7591	6.0466342
2020-10-06	412	10202	10614	3.8816657
2020-10-07	453	10134	10587	4.2788325
2020-10-08	395	9297	9692	4.0755262
2020-10-09	498	9327	9825	5.0687023
2020-10-10	499	9327	9826	5.0783635
2020-10-11	297	6576	6873	4.3212571
2020-10-12	477	10225	10702	4.4571108
2020-10-13	442	8254	8696	5.0827967
2020-10-14	540	10179	10719	5.0377834
2020-10-15	532	12419	12951	4.1077909
2020-10-16	538	10852	11390	4.7234416
2020-10-17	447	9704	10151	4.4035070
2020-10-18	397	9144	9541	4.1609894
2020-10-19	553	10393	10946	5.0520738
2020-10-20	341	6317	6658	5.1216582
2020-10-21	829	15242	16071	5.1583598
2020-10-22	517	16083	16600	3.1144578
2020-10-23	598	23824	24422	2.4486119
2020-10-24	313	8801	9114	3.4342769
2020-10-25	592	9507	10099	5.8619665
2020-10-26	724	12145	12869	5.6259228
2020-10-27	727	12717	13444	5.4076168
2020-10-28	664	12492	13156	5.0471268
2020-10-29	862	14665	15527	5.5516198
2020-10-30	337	5498	5835	5.7754927
2020-10-31	1284	22374	23658	5.4273396
2020-11-01	577	8617	9194	6.2758321
2020-11-02	858	12093	12951	6.6249710
2020-11-03	693	9381	10074	6.8790947
2020-11-04	1377	18280	19657	7.0051381
2020-11-05	1046	13878	14924	7.0088448
2020-11-06	802	8664	9466	8.4724276
2020-11-07	1693	21128	22821	7.4186057
2020-11-08	512	5819	6331	8.0871900
2020-11-09	399	5877	6276	6.3575526
2020-11-10	658	10716	11374	5.7851240
2020-11-11	1201	11562	12763	9.4100133
2020-11-12	1848	17847	19695	9.3830922
2020-11-13	1167	10823	11990	9.7331109
2020-11-14	2339	24091	26430	8.8497919
2020-11-15	994	11891	12885	7.7143966
2020-11-16	1853	18338	20191	9.1773562
2020-11-17	1660	15882	17542	9.4630031
2020-11-18	1933	21382	23315	8.2907999
2020-11-19	2020	20750	22770	8.8713219
2020-11-20	1883	23195	25078	7.5085733
2020-11-21	1722	19489	21211	8.1184291
2020-11-22	1442	18298	19740	7.3049645
2020-11-23	1785	20767	22552	7.9150408
2020-11-24	2072	25386	27458	7.5460704
2020-11-25	1942	28281	30223	6.4255699
2020-11-26	1728	22500	24228	7.1322437
2020-11-27	1468	15886	17354	8.4591449
2020-11-28	1962	17154	19116	10.2636535
2020-11-29	1967	17225	19192	10.2490621
2020-11-30	2114	19134	21248	9.9491717
2020-12-01	2257	20327	22584	9.9938009
2020-12-02	2226	20948	23174	9.6055925
2020-12-03	2453	27020	29473	8.3228718
2020-12-04	2206	24858	27064	8.1510494
2020-12-05	1962	20696	22658	8.6591932
2020-12-06	2018	21002	23020	8.7662902
2020-12-07	1659	18689	20348	8.1531354
2020-12-08	2091	24555	26646	7.8473317
2020-12-09	2266	23480	25746	8.8013672
2020-12-10	2130	24093	26223	8.1226404
2020-12-11	2062	22579	24641	8.3681669
2020-12-12	2393	22513	24906	9.6081266
2020-12-13	2274	21914	24188	9.4013560
2020-12-14	2110	20664	22774	9.2649513
2020-12-15	2354	23151	25505	9.2295628
2020-12-16	2521	25302	27823	9.0608489
2020-12-17	2408	26551	28959	8.3152043
2020-12-18	2353	25708	28061	8.3853034
2020-12-19	1968	21349	23317	8.4401938
2020-12-20	2250	23908	26158	8.6015750
2020-12-21	2255	23820	26075	8.6481304
2020-12-22	2195	26344	28539	7.6912295
2020-12-23	2275	30629	32904	6.9140530
2020-12-24	1853	24821	26674	6.9468396
2020-12-25	1472	13677	15149	9.7168130
2020-12-26	1591	14308	15899	10.0069187
2020-12-27	2072	16475	18547	11.1716181
2020-12-28	2803	8590	11393	24.6028263
2020-12-29	2684	34976	37660	7.1269251
2020-12-30	2851	25247	28098	10.1466297
2020-12-31	3646	33896	37542	9.7117895
2021-01-01	1646	15584	17230	9.5531050
2021-01-02	1581	9984	11565	13.6705577
2021-01-03	2617	20403	23020	11.3683753
2021-01-04	3319	26332	29651	11.1935517
2021-01-05	3084	26415	29499	10.4545917
2021-01-06	3338	28492	31830	10.4869620
2021-01-07	3337	28593	31930	10.4509865
2021-01-08	2565	24550	27115	9.4597086
2021-01-09	2401	24894	27295	8.7964829
2021-01-10	2227	22069	24296	9.1661179
2021-01-11	2927	27469	30396	9.6295565
2021-01-12	2520	24262	26782	9.4093048
2021-01-13	2464	24619	27083	9.0979581
2021-01-14	2687	26668	29355	9.1534662
2021-01-15	2415	25698	28113	8.5903319
2021-01-16	2393	22837	25230	9.4847404
2021-01-17	1819	18033	19852	9.1628048
2021-01-18	1869	19836	21705	8.6109191
2021-01-19	2260	18482	20742	10.8957670
2021-01-20	2133	25291	27424	7.7778588
2021-01-21	2256	18275	20531	10.9882617
2021-01-22	2298	33619	35917	6.3980845
2021-01-23	1776	20956	22732	7.8127749
2021-01-24	2018	22175	24193	8.3412557
2021-01-25	1741	18624	20365	8.5489811
2021-01-26	1488	16413	17901	8.3123848
2021-01-27	1990	25562	27552	7.2227062
2021-01-28	2004	11310	13314	15.0518251
2021-01-29	2472	39807	42279	5.8468743
2021-01-30	1472	24388	25860	5.6921887
2021-01-31	1278	14826	16104	7.9359165
2021-02-01	1882	21999	23881	7.8807420
2021-02-02	1192	14513	15705	7.5899395
2021-02-03	1409	16352	17761	7.9331119
2021-02-04	2346	29608	31954	7.3418038
2021-02-05	1444	21827	23271	6.2051480
2021-02-06	1529	19747	21276	7.1865012
2021-02-07	1300	15871	17171	7.5709044
2021-02-08	1482	20138	21620	6.8547641
2021-02-09	1496	21290	22786	6.5654349
2021-02-10	1555	21243	22798	6.8207738
2021-02-11	1617	23985	25602	6.3159128
2021-02-12	1406	21460	22866	6.1488673
2021-02-13	1333	18248	19581	6.8076196
2021-02-14	660	10219	10879	6.0667341
2021-02-15	1483	20995	22478	6.5975621
2021-02-16	1392	20366	21758	6.3976468
2021-02-17	838	12958	13796	6.0742244
2021-02-18	1566	23681	25247	6.2027172
2021-02-19	1511	24288	25799	5.8568162
2021-02-20	1119	16380	17499	6.3946511
2021-02-21	999	12561	13560	7.3672566
2021-02-22	1255	19345	20600	6.0922330
2021-02-23	1122	18584	19706	5.6936974
2021-02-24	1420	23260	24680	5.7536467
2021-02-25	1164	20148	21312	5.4617117
2021-02-26	1192	18618	19810	6.0171630
2021-02-27	1479	16570	18049	8.1943598
2021-02-28	337	5497	5834	5.7764827
2021-03-01	1912	37062	38974	4.9058347
2021-03-02	1407	14405	15812	8.8983051
2021-03-03	1298	21278	22576	5.7494685
2021-03-04	1410	22522	23932	5.8916931
2021-03-05	1053	18344	19397	5.4286745
2021-03-06	1087	16722	17809	6.1036555
2021-03-07	894	14629	15523	5.7591960
2021-03-08	1112	17575	18687	5.9506609
2021-03-09	1083	18269	19352	5.5963208
2021-03-10	1154	19178	20332	5.6757820
2021-03-11	1128	19070	20198	5.5847114
2021-03-12	1276	19771	21047	6.0626218
2021-03-13	834	12864	13698	6.0884801
2021-03-14	740	11475	12215	6.0581253
2021-03-15	1322	20379	21701	6.0918852
2021-03-16	1027	15852	16879	6.0844837
2021-03-17	1906	18605	20511	9.2925747
2021-03-18	1199	19237	20436	5.8670973
2021-03-19	1245	20453	21698	5.7378560
2021-03-20	939	13248	14187	6.6187355
2021-03-21	832	11930	12762	6.5193543
2021-03-22	1272	19018	20290	6.2690981
2021-03-23	1047	16478	17525	5.9743224
2021-03-24	1263	21401	22664	5.5727144
2021-03-25	1298	23126	24424	5.3144448
2021-03-26	1284	20392	21676	5.9236021
2021-03-27	1029	16011	17040	6.0387324
2021-03-28	982	12010	12992	7.5584975
2021-03-29	1271	18253	19524	6.5099365
2021-03-30	968	14070	15038	6.4370262
2021-03-31	1572	20355	21927	7.1692434
2021-04-01	1404	19067	20471	6.8584827
2021-04-02	1386	18790	20176	6.8695480
2021-04-03	1176	15922	17098	6.8779974
2021-04-04	888	11614	12502	7.1028635
2021-04-05	1485	19412	20897	7.1062832
2021-04-06	1064	13861	14925	7.1289782
2021-04-07	1919	24064	25983	7.3855983
2021-04-08	1591	20445	22036	7.2200036
2021-04-09	1571	20121	21692	7.2423013
2021-04-10	1201	15309	16510	7.2743792
2021-04-11	398	3967	4365	9.1179840
2021-04-12	2312	26970	29282	7.8956355
2021-04-13	1184	15871	17055	6.9422457
2021-04-14	1435	18172	19607	7.3188147
2021-04-15	1443	19798	21241	6.7934655
2021-04-16	1460	19153	20613	7.0829088
2021-04-17	1401	13914	15315	9.1478942
2021-04-18	961	12350	13311	7.2195928
2021-04-19	1341	18181	19522	6.8691732
2021-04-20	1146	16300	17446	6.5688410
2021-04-21	1163	18154	19317	6.0206036
2021-04-22	954	13203	14157	6.7387158
2021-04-23	1482	22081	23563	6.2895217
2021-04-24	927	14216	15143	6.1216404
2021-04-25	799	10616	11415	6.9995620
2021-04-26	1043	16169	17212	6.0597258
2021-04-27	910	16376	17286	5.2643758
2021-04-28	1067	18122	19189	5.5604774
2021-04-29	931	16179	17110	5.4412624
2021-04-30	1133	18352	19485	5.8147293
2021-05-01	828	13441	14269	5.8027893
2021-05-02	738	12879	13617	5.4196960
2021-05-03	784	12979	13763	5.6964325
2021-05-04	762	14762	15524	4.9085287
2021-05-05	844	16958	17802	4.7410403
2021-05-06	807	17065	17872	4.5154432
2021-05-07	805	16166	16971	4.7433858
2021-05-08	647	13205	13852	4.6708057
2021-05-09	493	12053	12546	3.9295393
2021-05-10	668	15057	15725	4.2480127
2021-05-11	511	12524	13035	3.9202148
2021-05-12	773	17647	18420	4.1965255
2021-05-13	700	16997	17697	3.9554727
2021-05-14	625	15646	16271	3.8411898
2021-05-15	492	13309	13801	3.5649591
2021-05-16	460	11918	12378	3.7162708
2021-05-17	535	13596	14131	3.7860024
2021-05-18	506	13757	14263	3.5476407
2021-05-19	509	13882	14391	3.5369328
2021-05-20	405	12391	12796	3.1650516
2021-05-21	660	21664	22324	2.9564594
2021-05-22	434	13345	13779	3.1497206
2021-05-23	388	12412	12800	3.0312500
2021-05-24	287	10043	10330	2.7783156
2021-05-25	380	14133	14513	2.6183422
2021-05-26	424	14963	15387	2.7555729
2021-05-27	354	17711	18065	1.9595904

The data above show for each day since April 2, 2020: the number of positive COVID-19 tests, the number of negative COVID-19 tests, and the proportion of positive COVID-19 tests to total COVID-19 tests.

Total COVID-19 Tests by Day

We see the following pattern for the count of total tests. (shown on a log scale):

The average number of COVID-19 tests performed each day has increased from about 2,000 in early April, 2020 to over 12,500 currently. Over the past two weeks there was a decrease of -111.5 fewer tests performed each day. Note: data plotted on a log scale.

Positive COVID-19 Tests by Day

We see the following pattern for the count of positive tests: