Miami-Dade County COVID-19 Trajectory

Introduction

Public understanding of science is critical in times of crisis. The following analysis was conducted to examine the trajectory of COVID-19 in Miami-Dade County. For phased reopening, the White House has set guidelines for local municipalities in their “Opening Up American Again” report. In the report, it is highly suggested that:

  1. Local areas show a downward trajectory in the number of positive cases as a percent of total tests over a two-week period, and
  2. Local hospitals have capacity to handle all patients without crisis care.

The analysis begins by looking at the number of new positive cases each day and the number of total tests performed each day. The figures are presented together because as there is more testing, there are likely to be more positive test results. Therefore, the proportion of positive cases is also calculated. Given either a flat or increasing number of tests performed, the proportion of positive cases is the key metric to be used when looking at epidemic trajectory. It is recommended that this proportion not exceed 5%.

Finally, to ensure hospitals can meet demand without crisis care, the COVID-19 positive hospitalization census, COVID-19 positive ICU census, and COVID-19 positive ventilation census is plotted over time. Census refers to the number of COVID-19 positive patients in the hospital, ICU, and on ventilators, respectively, on a given day. Note: 5-day moving averages are used to smooth data.


COVID-19 Test Counts and Proportions

Full Data

This is a table of the most recent data we have available. We include data sources at the end of the document.
Date Positive Negative Total PropPositive
20-Mar 23 146 169 13.6094675
21-Mar 53 419 472 11.2288136
22-Mar 83 452 535 15.5140187
23-Mar 44 241 285 15.4385965
24-Mar 90 491 581 15.4905336
25-Mar 154 1079 1233 12.4898621
26-Mar 178 749 927 19.2017260
27-Mar 205 1066 1271 16.1290323
28-Mar 270 917 1187 22.7464195
29-Mar 362 1248 1610 22.4844720
30-Mar 278 963 1241 22.4012893
31-Mar 461 1613 2074 22.2275796
1-Apr 272 1569 1841 14.7745790
2-Apr 544 2413 2957 18.3970240
3-Apr 625 1878 2503 24.9700360
4-Apr 531 2521 3052 17.3984273
5-Apr 311 1260 1571 19.7963081
6-Apr 556 2309 2865 19.4066318
7-Apr 493 1990 2483 19.8550141
8-Apr 488 1113 1601 30.4809494
9-Apr 435 2636 3071 14.1647672
10-Apr 542 2505 3047 17.7879882
11-Apr 563 2732 3295 17.0864947
12-Apr 364 1614 1978 18.4024267
13-Apr 477 2267 2744 17.3833819
14-Apr 364 1663 2027 17.9575728
15-Apr 438 2392 2830 15.4770318
16-Apr 536 2767 3303 16.2276718
17-Apr 519 2901 3420 15.1754386
18-Apr 296 1509 1805 16.3988920
19-Apr 465 2690 3155 14.7385103
20-Apr 413 3232 3645 11.3305898
21-Apr 577 4230 4807 12.0033285
22-Apr 465 2701 3166 14.6873026
23-Apr 619 3647 4266 14.5100797
24-Apr 552 2852 3404 16.2162162
25-Apr 564 4136 4700 12.0000000
26-Apr 384 2576 2960 12.9729730
27-Apr 446 2789 3235 13.7867079
28-Apr 213 1333 1546 13.7774903
29-Apr 309 1704 2013 15.3502235
30-Apr 333 3724 4057 8.2080355
1-May 250 3616 3866 6.4666322
2-May 144 2183 2327 6.1882252
3-May 295 2896 3191 9.2447509
4-May 151 3900 4051 3.7274747
5-May 165 2231 2396 6.8864775
6-May 153 2296 2449 6.2474479
7-May 95 2091 2186 4.3458371
8-May 165 2623 2788 5.9182209
9-May 227 2209 2436 9.3185550
10-May 160 2551 2711 5.9018812
11-May 168 3426 3594 4.6744574
12-May 153 1662 1815 8.4297521
13-May 278 2216 2494 11.1467522
14-May 212 1722 1934 10.9617373
15-May 177 1898 2075 8.5301205
16-May 541 3026 3567 15.1668068
17-May 164 4187 4351 3.7692484
18-May 123 5305 5428 2.2660280
19-May 65 13644 13709 0.4741411
20-May 339 7261 7600 4.4605263
21-May 188 2643 2831 6.6407630
22-May 158 3143 3301 4.7864284
23-May 123 2491 2614 4.7054323
24-May 219 5544 5763 3.8001041
25-May 113 2819 2932 3.8540246
26-May 100 1785 1885 5.3050398
27-May 143 2693 2836 5.0423131
28-May 259 5670 5929 4.3683589
29-May 165 2454 2619 6.3001145
30-May 202 4104 4306 4.6911287
31-May 138 2921 3059 4.5112782
1-Jun 83 1042 1125 7.3777778
2-Jun 250 4639 4889 5.1135201
2-Jun 274 4952 5226 5.2430157
4-Jun 217 3909 4126 5.2593311
5-Jun 233 3111 3344 6.9677033
6-Jun 328 8882 9210 3.5613464
7-Jun 226 2674 2900 7.7931034
8-Jun 231 4255 4486 5.1493535
9-Jun 247 3249 3496 7.0652174
10-Jun 295 4861 5156 5.7214895
11-Jun 255 3967 4222 6.0397916
12-Jun 560 4866 5426 10.3206782
13-Jun 292 9250 9542 3.0601551
14-Jun 265 2724 2989 8.8658414
15-Jun 519 5222 5741 9.0402369
16-Jun 489 3337 3826 12.7809723
17-Jun 560 4422 4982 11.2404657
18-Jun 551 4415 4966 11.0954491
19-Jun 618 4668 5286 11.6912599
20-Jun 906 5877 6783 13.3569217
21-Jun 429 4344 4773 8.9880578
22-Jun 674 3030 3704 18.1965443
23-Jun 908 3838 4746 19.1319005
24-Jun 878 7689 8567 10.2486285
25-Jun 1511 9050 10561 14.3073573
26-Jun 1356 8243 9599 14.1264715
27-Jun 2137 9819 11956 17.8738709
28-Jun 1525 6621 8146 18.7208446
29-Jun 1590 7313 8903 17.8591486
30-Jun 1137 5059 6196 18.3505487
1-Jul 2295 9395 11690 19.6321642
2-Jul 2041 7666 9707 21.0260637
3-Jul 2436 10356 12792 19.0431520
4-Jul 2271 8757 11028 20.5930359
5-Jul 1976 7880 9856 20.0487013
6-Jul 2025 7562 9587 21.1223532
7-Jul 2931 10299 13230 22.1541950
8-Jul 2004 5557 7561 26.5044306
9-Jul 2348 9134 11482 20.4493991
10-Jul 2536 9205 11741 21.5995230
11-Jul 3571 17810 21381 16.7017445
12-Jul 3237 12641 15878 20.3866986
13-Jul 2115 7302 9417 22.4593820
14-Jul 2480 9742 12222 20.2912780
15-Jul 3083 13405 16488 18.6984474
16-Jul 2405 10672 13077 18.3910683
17-Jul 3125 14532 17657 17.6983633
18-Jul 3234 12353 15587 20.7480593
19-Jul 2850 9607 12457 22.8787027
20-Jul 2492 10364 12856 19.3839452
21-Jul 2748 13611 16359 16.7980928
22-Jul 2711 11784 14495 18.7030010
23-Jul 3341 13427 16768 19.9248569
24-Jul 3383 13720 17103 19.7801555
25-Jul 2895 13058 15953 18.1470570
26-Jul 2571 11432 14003 18.3603514
27-Jul 3023 14067 17090 17.6887068
28-Jul 2788 14193 16981 16.4183499
29-Jul 2759 12561 15320 18.0091384
30-Jul 2549 14373 16922 15.0632313
31-Jul 2747 14021 16768 16.3823950
1-Aug 1478 8132 9610 15.3798127
2-Aug 968 6631 7599 12.7385182
3-Aug 1125 6920 8045 13.9838409
4-Aug 1207 6513 7720 15.6347150
5-Aug 1711 11470 13181 12.9808057
6-Aug 1725 10119 11844 14.5643364
7-Aug 1800 11437 13237 13.5982473
8-Aug 1231 8806 10037 12.2646209
9-Aug 1155 9458 10613 10.8828795
10-Aug 1508 9506 11014 13.6916652
11-Aug 4087 18143 22230 18.3850652
12-Aug 1737 11765 13502 12.8647608
13-Aug 1695 13659 15354 11.0394685
14-Aug 1752 14573 16325 10.7320061
15-Aug 935 8089 9024 10.3612589
16-Aug 739 5229 5968 12.3827078
17-Aug 972 8234 9206 10.5583315
18-Aug 1109 10300 11409 9.7203962
19-Aug 1082 10085 11167 9.6892630
20-Aug 1151 10896 12047 9.5542459
21-Aug 946 12290 13236 7.1471744
22-Aug 771 7672 8443 9.1318252
23-Aug 512 5136 5648 9.0651558
24-Aug 811 7787 8598 9.4324261
25-Aug 782 9437 10219 7.6524122
26-Aug 624 7405 8029 7.7718271
27-Aug 665 8102 8767 7.5852629
28-Aug 603 7932 8535 7.0650264
29-Aug 522 7439 7961 6.5569652
30-Aug 343 4943 5286 6.4888384
31-Aug 840 9888 10728 7.8299776
1-Sep 336 6120 6456 5.2044610
2-Sep 579 7360 7939 7.2931100
3-Sep 481 7789 8270 5.8162031
4-Sep 557 8057 8614 6.4662178
5-Sep 335 5341 5676 5.9020437
6-Sep 278 5311 5589 4.9740562
7-Sep 367 6488 6855 5.3537564
8-Sep 437 6545 6982 6.2589516
9-Sep 456 7799 8255 5.5239249
10-Sep 451 8940 9391 4.8024705
11-Sep 438 8998 9436 4.6417974
12-Sep 295 6789 7084 4.1643139
13-Sep 254 5936 6190 4.1033926
14-Sep 416 8069 8485 4.9027696
15-Sep 457 9605 10062 4.5418406
16-Sep 457 11941 12398 3.6860784
17-Sep 409 10957 11366 3.5984515
18-Sep 560 13585 14145 3.9589961
19-Sep 387 8045 8432 4.5896584
20-Sep 283 7380 7663 3.6930706
21-Sep 357 6142 6499 5.4931528
22-Sep 376 7115 7491 5.0193566
23-Sep 394 8566 8960 4.3973214
24-Sep 501 8929 9430 5.3128314
25-Sep 375 8954 9329 4.0197234
26-Sep 279 6292 6571 4.2459291
27-Sep 71 2556 2627 2.7027027


The data above show for each day since April 2: the number of positive COVID-19 tests, the number of negative COVID-19 tests, and the proportion of positive COVID-19 tests to total COVID-19 tests.

Total COVID-19 Tests by Day

We see the following pattern for the count of total tests. (shown on a log scale):

The average number of COVID-19 tests performed each day has increased from about 2,000 in early April to around 12,500 in August before declining to over 5,000 per day in September. On average, from 20 March until 27 September, there was an increase of approximately 58 addition tests performed each day over the previous day. This data is presented on a log scale. Over the past two weeks, there was a decrease of -66 fewer tests performed each day.

Positive COVID-19 Tests by Day

We see the following pattern for the count of positive tests: